Historical extremes are driven by cycles, not surprises

Bitcoin's high volatility has been one of its inherent characteristics since inception. Each bull and bear cycle has seen retracements of 30%, 50%, and even over 70%. When looking at a longer timeframe, what are called "extreme declines" are actually part of the cyclical pattern. Bull markets are responsible for creating narratives of prosperity, while bear markets serve to prune excess valuations and bubbles.

Currently, the decline approaching historical extremes prompts us to think more about which part of the cycle the market is in, rather than how much further it might fall. Typically, in the later stages of a cycle, the price decline slows down, but the duration extends, with sideways movement digesting emotions and capitulation of positions. This "time for more space" adjustment is more exhausting than a sudden crash.

The composition of market participants is also changing. After early short-term hot money exits, what remains are mostly long-term allocators and faith-based holders. These investors are less focused on short-term doubling and more on long-term value and scarcity logic. As a result, price elasticity decreases, but bottom resilience increases.

From a strategic perspective, the late cycle is more suitable for research and positioning rather than emotional trading. Shifting focus from price to industry development, adoption rates, and macro liquidity often provides clearer insights. #比特币跌幅逼近历史极值