Udemy Q4 Results: Earnings Headwinds Face Analyst Skepticism

Udemy’s quarterly earnings report for the period ending December 2025 arrived with mixed signals for investors. Wall Street consensus points to a challenging quarter ahead, with profit margins contracting and top-line growth stalling—a combination that tests the online learning platform’s ability to maintain momentum in a competitive edtech landscape. The real story, however, lies not in the forecasts themselves but in what the gap between predictions and reality might signal about Udemy’s near-term stock performance.

Wall Street’s Consensus View for Udemy

Analysts project Udemy will post earnings of $0.09 per share for the quarter, representing a 10% decline from the year-ago period. Revenue expectations stand at $193.21 million, down 3.4% year-over-year—a modest contraction that suggests the company faces headwinds in both profitability and top-line growth.

These consensus figures represent the aggregate expectations of covering analysts. However, the real predictive power comes not from these baseline estimates but from how recent analyst revisions have shifted. Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 366.67%, a substantial recalibration that signals growing bearishness about Udemy’s near-term prospects. This dramatic revision tells a story: analysts have systematically lowered their profit expectations as new information emerged about business conditions.

The Earnings ESP Model: What It Reveals About Udemy

The Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) provides a framework for anticipating whether Udemy will beat or miss consensus expectations. The model compares the Most Accurate Estimate—derived from the most recent analyst revisions—against the broader consensus figure. The rationale: analysts making last-minute estimate changes possess the freshest information and may be more accurate than their earlier predictions.

For Udemy, the Most Accurate Estimate sits lower than the consensus forecast, yielding a negative Earnings ESP of -36.17%. This negative reading suggests analysts don’t expect Udemy to surprise to the upside. Paired with Udemy’s current Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this combination creates uncertainty: it becomes difficult to confidently predict whether Udemy will beat, miss, or match consensus EPS expectations.

Research from Zacks shows that positive ESP readings combined with Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) produce earnings beats roughly 70% of the time. However, negative ESP readings lack predictive power for identifying earnings beats. In Udemy’s case, the negative signal doesn’t guarantee a miss—it simply means the probability of a surprise beat is low.

How Udemy’s Track Record Shapes Expectations

Historical performance provides context for evaluating the upcoming report. Udemy has demonstrated a pattern of delivering upside surprises: the company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Most recently, in the last reported quarter, Udemy delivered $0.13 per share against expectations of $0.10, a +30% surprise.

This track record complicates the bearish Earnings ESP signal. While recent analyst revisions suggest caution, Udemy’s consistent history of beating expectations introduces a counterweight. The company has shown the ability to find profitability improvements and efficiency gains that analysts initially miss in their models.

eGain: A Contrasting Earnings Picture

Within the Zacks Internet - Software industry, eGain (EGAN) presents a different earnings narrative. Analysts expect eGain to post $0.08 per share for the same quarter—but with a +100% year-over-year improvement. Revenues are forecast at $22.49 million, essentially flat from the prior year (+0.5% growth).

Unlike Udemy, eGain’s consensus EPS estimate has remained stable over the past 30 days, with the Most Accurate Estimate matching the consensus exactly. This alignment produces an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, indicating no directional bias either way. Combined with eGain’s #3 (Hold) Zacks Rank, the outlook suggests difficulty in predicting whether eGain will beat or miss. However, eGain has also beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, offering investors historical reassurance of execution capability.

The Investment Angle: Beyond the Numbers

Earnings beats or misses rarely move stocks in isolation. Management’s guidance during the earnings call, broader market sentiment, and macro conditions often matter more than the EPS number itself. A company can beat earnings and still fall if management disappoints on forward guidance. Conversely, stocks frequently gain ground despite missing expectations when management outlines a compelling path ahead.

For Udemy specifically, the current setup presents a puzzle: negative Earnings ESP signals caution, yet the company’s four-quarter track record of beating expectations suggests underlying strength. The consensus predicts contraction, yet Udemy’s history indicates management finds ways to outperform.

Bottom Line on Udemy’s Earnings Outlook

Udemy doesn’t present a compelling earnings-beat candidate based purely on the Earnings ESP model and recent analyst revisions. The -36.17% ESP reading combined with a Hold-rated stock suggests modest probability of a material upside surprise. However, investors evaluating Udemy should weigh multiple factors: the company’s demonstrated ability to execute in prior quarters, the magnitude of analyst downgrades (which sometimes overcorrect), and management’s commentary on competitive positioning and margin recovery.

Zacks Investment Research emphasizes that the best predictive power comes from combining positive Earnings ESP readings with favorable Zacks Rank designations—a combination that has produced positive surprises nearly 70% of the time historically. For investors seeking data-driven earnings plays, filtering for this combination offers statistical edge.

The views expressed reflect analysis of available data and consensus estimates rather than individual endorsement of investment action. Investors should conduct independent due diligence before making positioning decisions around Udemy or any publicly traded security.