Chevron Stock Poised to Run Higher on Strong 2025 Results and 2026 Catalysts

Chevron’s fourth-quarter earnings report has painted a compelling picture for investors positioning themselves for the next leg of gains. While the energy giant’s headline results were mixed—posting a slight revenue miss but beating on earnings—the real story lies in the company’s operational momentum and the catalysts positioned to drive CVX higher in 2026. With record production, expanding projects, and a fortress balance sheet backing shareholder returns, Chevron appears ready to run to fresh all-time highs as the year unfolds.

Record Production Surge Powers Growth

The standout achievement in 2025 was Chevron’s record production run. The company posted a 12% production increase, hitting the upper end of its guidance and establishing a strong foundation for the years ahead. This growth was powered by major project executions across key assets, including Tengizchevroil (TCO), the Permian Basin, and the newly developed Gulf of America (GOA) complex.

The real catalyst came from the full operational contribution of Hess assets following the merger. These acquired properties added 261 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), with production primarily flowing from Guyana and the Bakken formation. Beyond traditional upstream growth, Chevron’s Eastern Mediterranean portfolio reached important milestones. The company brought the Tamar optimization project online and made a final investment decision on the Leviathan expansion, with the facility expected to commence production in early 2026.

Venezuela represents another growth engine. Chevron has signaled plans to boost production in the country by 50% over the next 18 to 24 months, a move that would significantly enhance the company’s reserve base and production profile. Looking ahead, management is guiding for 7% to 10% production growth in 2026 at $60 Brent pricing, with TCO contributing an additional 30 MBOED to the growth trajectory.

39-Year Dividend Growth Streak Continues

Chevron announced a $1.78 annual dividend, up from $1.71—a 4% increase that extends the company’s remarkable track record. The energy company now boasts 39 consecutive years of dividend increases, a Dividend Aristocrat honor that speaks to management’s commitment through economic cycles. While the raise trails the annualized five-year growth rate of 6.49%, the consistency is what matters.

The dividend is firmly backed by the company’s financial engine. Adjusted free cash flow surged 35% in 2025 despite crude prices falling 15% versus 2024—a powerful testament to Chevron’s cost discipline and operational efficiency. This cash generation capability provides the foundation for sustainable shareholder returns regardless of oil price volatility.

Strong Cash Generation Sustains Shareholder Returns

Chevron’s financial fortress became even more fortified in 2025. The company generated $33.9 billion in operating cash flow, translating to $34.9 billion when excluding working capital impacts. Full-year earnings reached $12.3 billion, or $6.63 per diluted share, with adjusted earnings coming in at $13.5 billion, or $7.29 per share. These results underscore the company’s earning power even as Brent crude averaged just $69 per barrel, down meaningfully from $81 in the prior year.

Capital discipline defined the company’s approach. Chevron returned a record $27 billion to shareholders in 2025, consisting of $12.8 billion in dividends and $12.1 billion in share repurchases. The company also achieved $1.5 billion in structural cost savings during the year, with efficiency gains accounting for more than 60% of the reduction. Management is targeting $3 to $4 billion in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, positioning the dividend breakeven price below $50 per barrel through 2030—a level that provides substantial downside protection for the shareholder return program.

Technical Setup Confirms the Next Leg Higher

The stock technicals validate the fundamental story. CVX has already advanced over 12% in 2026, pushing through the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and approaching a new 52-week high. The move has broken through the prior ceiling around $155, establishing fresh support at that level. More importantly, the rally is backed by expanding volume, with the MACD indicator now firmly in positive territory—a signal that upside momentum is genuine rather than a temporary spike.

This combination of strong fundamentals and bullish technicals positions Chevron for a move to new all-time highs. The company’s production growth, cost efficiency, growing project contributions from Venezuela and the Eastern Mediterranean, and fortress balance sheet all align to keep the stock ready to run higher as 2026 progresses. With several catalysts still ahead—including Leviathan coming online and Venezuela ramp-up gains—CVX appears primed for a significant move over the coming months.