Wheat Futures Decline as Dollar Strength Weighs on Markets

just_another_wallet · 2026-02-17T18:19:49+00:00

Wheat markets declined following a strong dollar, impacting various futures contracts. Chicago SRW saw the largest drop, while March contracts fared better. Trader positions shifted as bearish bets decreased, and export commitments remained robust, indicating healthy demand despite short-term market pressures.

just_another_wallet

2026-02-17 18:19:49

Abstract generation in progress

Wheat markets retreated across major trading exchanges following a significant $0.893 surge in the dollar index on Friday. Currency appreciation often pressures commodities priced in dollars, and the grain complex felt this headwind immediately as trading activity wound down the week. The weakness was broad-based, affecting different wheat varieties and contract months with varying intensity, signaling a market responsive to macroeconomic forces rather than fundamental supply concerns.

Price Pullback Across Major Exchanges

Chicago SRW (Soft Red Winter) futures experienced the steepest declines, dropping 3 to 4.25 cents during Friday’s session, though March contracts held firmer ground with an 8.5 cent weekly gain. Kansas City HRW (Hard Red Winter) futures saw more modest pressure, shedding 2 to 3 cents at the close, while March HRW maintained a 4 cent advance for the week. Minneapolis spring wheat followed suit with 3 to 4 cent losses on the day, though March position still recorded a 3.25 cent gain week-over-week.

The daily setbacks contrasted with the weekly gains in front-month contracts, illustrating the typical pattern where near-term positions show more stability than distant months. Chicago SRW March futures closed at $5.38 per bushel (down 3.5 cents), May at $5.46 (down 4.25 cents). Kansas City March settled at $5.44.75 (down 2.25 cents), May at $5.55 (down 2.75 cents). Minneapolis March concluded at $5.78.25 (down 3.25 cents), May at $5.92.50 (down 3 cents).

Trader Positioning Shifts and Export Momentum

Commitment of Traders (CoT) data through January 27 revealed managed money strategies reducing bearish exposure in wheat markets. Chicago wheat saw specs cut 15,957 short contracts, bringing their net short position to 94,743 contracts—a meaningful reduction in speculative bearish bets. Kansas City wheat traders trimmed 2,689 short contracts from their position, lowering the net short count to 10,329 contracts. These position adjustments suggest traders were reassessing bearish outlooks or taking profits on existing short positions.

On the export front, accumulated wheat sale commitments reached 21.595 million metric tons (MMT), positioning the market 18% ahead of the comparable week from the prior year. This pace represents 88% of the USDA’s full-season forecast and aligns closely with the 89% average historical pace, indicating healthy export demand supporting longer-term wheat fundamentals despite the day’s weakness.

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