Jim Rickards' View on the Gold Supercycle: Why Gold Prices Are Expected to Break $10,000 by 2026

Amid the backdrop of dramatic shifts in the global economic and geopolitical landscape, gold is redefining its strategic position in investment portfolios. Renowned economist Jim Rickards recently stated in an interview that the multiple factors driving the rise in the metals market will continue to exert influence this year, and he would not be surprised if gold prices reach $10,000 by 2026. This view reflects deep recognition among Wall Street elites of the long-term prospects for gold.

Spot gold recently broke through its historical high, surpassing the record of $4,880 per ounce. This surge is directly linked to the latest White House measures on international trade, reigniting market concerns over global trade tensions. As of now, spot gold fluctuates around $4,860 per ounce. After a historic increase of over 60% in 2025, gold has continued its strong momentum this year, becoming the most prominent asset in allocation.

Geopolitical tensions, declining real interest rates, and the “de-dollarization” of central banks and private investors’ diversified allocations—these three major factors are jointly pushing up gold prices. In this macro environment, gold’s role as the “ultimate safe haven asset” is being unprecedentedly reinforced.

Resonance of Authoritative Views: From $5,000 to $10,000 Expectations

The strong performance of gold is prompting global financial institutions to recalibrate market expectations. A survey by LBMA shows that most analysts expect gold prices to break through the $5,000 mark, with upward revisions ongoing.

Julia Du, senior commodities strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, believes gold could surge to $7,150. More aggressive forecasts point to five figures. Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, proposed an interesting hypothesis: if the S&P 500 reaches 10,000 points by the end of this decade, gold, as a portfolio balancing tool, could also reach $10,000 per ounce.

Economist Jim Rickards further elaborates on his macro perspective. He describes the current era as the “Roaring Twenties,” a phrase that profoundly reflects his insights into the characteristics of this period. In such a long cycle, breaking the $10,000 mark for gold is not a pipe dream but a natural consequence of macro imbalances and ongoing political uncertainties.

A Goldman Sachs institutional survey further confirms the market’s bullish consensus. Forty-two percent of respondents believe gold will rebound to the $5,000–$6,000 range, with an additional 10% expecting above $6,000. Bearish opinions are minimal, only single-digit percentages. This overwhelming bullish stance indicates that Jim Rickards’ outlook resonates strongly with mainstream market views.

Long-term Structural Demand Replacing Speculative Tops

When evaluating this gold price rally, the key question is: is this a speculative top, or the beginning of a new long-term trend?

Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, provides a clear answer: this cycle is a long-term trend trade, not a speculative peak. She expects gold to reach $5,400 this year, roughly 30% higher than last year’s historic gains.

Shiels notes that geopolitical tensions have not abated but have become the new normal. From U.S. actions in Venezuela to Washington’s claims over Greenland, recent conflicts further drive investors toward gold. The world is entering an era where securing supplies of key metals and commodities is critical, and this structural demand will support continued price increases rather than a commodity “parabolic top.”

Saxo Bank’s 2026 outlook even envisions a scenario where breakthroughs in quantum computing trigger market panic, pushing gold prices to $10,000. This multidimensional risk assessment reflects the market’s high regard for gold’s defensive functions.

Capital Flow Cycles: Private Capital Officially Takes Over from Central Banks

A significant shift has occurred in the funding structure driving gold prices—an important reason behind the optimistic outlook of experts like Jim Rickards.

Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, reaffirmed a bullish stance, listing gold as the bank’s “highest conviction” trade. The key change is that the buyer base is quietly rotating.

While central bank gold purchases drove the gains in 2023 and 2024, since 2025, the main driver of acceleration has shifted to private sector demand. Currently, private investors are diversifying their assets into gold through ETFs and other channels. Goldman Sachs data shows that current demand mainly comes from private wealth firms, asset managers, hedge funds, and pension investors.

This diffusion of buying from official reserves to broad private capital further strengthens the market foundation for this gold rally. Compared to the cyclical nature of central bank gold buying, private sector participation indicates a more diversified and less reversible demand structure. This is the deep logic behind experts like Jim Rickards’ confidence in long-term gold prices.

Gold’s “roaring” rise is not a fleeting phenomenon but the result of multiple factors—including global economic imbalances, rising geopolitical tensions, and capital structure adjustments. From Jim Rickards’ long-term perspective, this macro cycle has only just begun.