To Hold It or Not: Uber's Q4 Earnings and What Investors Should Know

Uber Technologies is preparing to share its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, and with it comes critical decisions for investors. The central question many are asking: should you hold it, or consider making a move? Before jumping to conclusions, it’s worth understanding what’s really driving this narrative around the ride-hailing giant’s near-term prospects.

Uber’s Q4 Numbers: What to Expect

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter pegs earnings at 83 cents per share and revenues at $14.28 billion. Revenue expectations reflect a healthy 19.4% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. However, the earnings picture tells a different story—estimates suggest a 74.1% decline from the year-ago period. While this sounds alarming, the company’s 60-day earnings estimate momentum shows a slight uptick of one cent, signaling subtle shifts in investor sentiment.

For the full year 2025, analysts expect Uber to generate $51.9 billion in revenues (18% year-over-year growth) and earnings per share of $5.4 (18.4% growth). The company’s historical track record strengthens the case for careful optimism: in the trailing four quarters, Uber surpassed earnings expectations every single time, with an average beat of 242.6%.

The consensus mark for fourth-quarter gross bookings—a key metric reflecting total transaction volume—sits at $53.1 billion, representing 20.1% growth from the same quarter last year. Management guided for gross bookings between $52.25 billion and $53.75 billion, implying 17% to 21% constant-currency growth. Both mobility and delivery segments are anticipated to deliver double-digit increases.

The Autonomous Vehicles Question: A Real Threat

The most significant headwind facing Uber isn’t regulatory or operational—it’s competitive. Waymo, the self-driving subsidiary of Alphabet, has accelerated its autonomous vehicle rollout at a pace that caught many observers off guard. The company recently crossed 450,000 weekly paid rides, nearly doubling the 250,000 it reported just months earlier in April 2025. For context, Waymo launched as Google’s Self-Driving Car unit back in 2009 before becoming an independent entity under the Alphabet umbrella. Today, it operates fully driverless fleets across multiple U.S. cities without safety drivers.

The rapid scaling of autonomous rides represents a direct challenge to Uber’s core ride-hailing business. While Uber itself has been investing heavily in autonomous vehicle technology and plans to provide updates on this front during the upcoming conference call, the market is clearly concerned about Waymo’s momentum stealing share. This competitive pressure has weighed on Uber’s stock significantly—shares have declined more than 15% over the past three months, underperforming both the Internet-Services industry and rival Lyft.

Valuation: Is Uber Reasonably Priced?

From a valuation standpoint, Uber presents a mixed picture. Trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 22.15, the company sits below the Internet-Services industry average of 29.5. On this metric alone, Uber appears cheaper than peers. Lyft, meanwhile, trades at an even lower forward P/E of 11.37, though that reflects investor concerns specific to its competitive position.

Uber’s market capitalization of $201.08 billion provides the company with substantial scale advantages. The Value Score for Uber is rated C, suggesting moderate valuation appeal. Given the company’s diversified business model spanning mobility, delivery, and emerging segments, the valuation doesn’t appear stretched compared to pure-play competitors.

The Case for Hold It: Balancing Growth with Headwinds

So, should you hold it? The answer hinges on timeframe and risk tolerance. Uber’s diversification efforts warrant praise. Through acquisitions, geographic expansion, and product innovation, the company has successfully reduced single-business risk. International market expansion has provided geographic diversification benefits, while continuous innovation keeps the company competitive.

However, several factors argue for caution. High operating costs continue to pressure margins, and elevated debt levels represent a material concern. More critically, the robotaxi and autonomous driving space is becoming crowded, with Waymo proving to be a formidable competitor.

The tariff-related headwinds mentioned by management also warrant attention—these could impact profitability in the near term. Rather than making aggressive moves ahead of the earnings announcement, investors should hold it and await management’s commentary. The company’s fourth-quarter guidance will be particularly revealing, offering insight into 2026 prospects and how management is adapting to competitive pressures.

The bottom line: Uber remains a fundamentally solid company with impressive scale, proven execution, and a track record of beating estimates. However, the competitive landscape is shifting. Until management clarifies its strategy on autonomous vehicles and provides forward guidance amid tariff uncertainty, the prudent approach is to hold it and observe from the sidelines, reassessing once the full picture emerges.