Netflix Stock Target Trimmed by 11.3% on Analyst Repricing

Netflix (XTRA:NFC) faces analyst pressure as the consensus price target has been substantially revised downward. The average one-year analyst estimate now stands at €99.50 per share, representing an 11.3% cut from the previous consensus of €112.17 set in mid-January 2026. This significant repricing reflects shifting market expectations around the streaming giant’s near-term growth prospects and valuation multiple.

Analyst Estimates Range Widely, Yet Still Signal Upside Potential

The revised price target represents an average of multiple analyst forecasts, with individual estimates spanning a broad range. The most bullish analysts target €137.00 per share, while more cautious voices suggest a floor of €69.04. Despite the 11.3% downward adjustment, the consensus estimate still implies approximately 43% upside from Netflix’s most recent closing price of €69.63 per share—a signal that even with reduced expectations, analysts see recovery potential ahead.

Institutional Investor Base Shrinks While Holdings Surge

Fund sentiment shows mixed signals as the Netflix shareholder base undergoes structural shifts. Approximately 4,688 funds and institutions currently maintain positions in the streaming platform, down 315 owners from the previous quarter—a 6.3% reduction in the number of fund participants. However, the total share count held by these institutional investors climbed significantly, increasing 141.31% to reach 985.3 million shares over the three-month period.

The average portfolio weighting dedicated to Netflix across all institutional funds sits at 0.86%, up 14.19% from prior quarters. This metric suggests that while fewer funds own Netflix, those who do have meaningfully increased their allocations, signaling conviction among key institutional players despite the analyst price target cut.

Major Investors Reshape Positions

The largest Netflix shareholders demonstrate nuanced positioning strategies. Baillie Gifford increased its Netflix stake to 36.94 million shares, up 90.12% from previous filings, representing 0.87% company ownership. Yet paradoxically, the firm reduced its portfolio allocation weight in Netflix by 65.58%—indicating the absolute share count grew while Netflix’s percentage of the fund’s total portfolio actually contracted.

Jennison Associates similarly boosted holdings to 34.87 million shares (86.48% increase), now representing 0.83% ownership, though it simultaneously pared Netflix’s portfolio allocation by 68.25%. UBS Group nearly doubled its position to 20 million shares (90.83% increase) but trimmed its portfolio weight by 84.16%.

Notably, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund represents one of the few exceptions. The fund holds 13.69 million Netflix shares (a modest 1.25% increase) while actually raising Netflix’s portfolio allocation by 29.74%—suggesting index rebalancing rather than active convictions.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings rounded out the major position holders with 12.1 million shares, up 89.91%, though reducing allocation weight by 20.87%.

What This Means for Netflix Investors

The combination of an 11.3% analyst price target reduction and paradoxical institutional behavior—simultaneous share count expansion with portfolio weight reduction—reflects the complex dynamics driving Netflix valuations. Larger absolute positions coupled with reduced fund allocations suggest institutional investors are managing exposure through careful diversification rather than wholesale conviction. The wide spread in analyst targets (€69 to €137) underscores genuine uncertainty about the streaming platform’s forward trajectory.