Anglo American Revises Copper Outlook Lower on Q4 Production Shortfall

Anglo American PLC has adjusted its medium-term copper outlook downward following a challenging fourth quarter, with production and project delivery facing multiple operational constraints. The mining giant disclosed that near-term copper output declined substantially, prompting the company to trim its production guidance for the coming years—a move that signals headwinds in one of the mining sector’s most critical commodities.

Copper Output Declines in Fourth Quarter

The company’s copper production fell to 169,500 tonnes in Q4, representing a 14% contraction compared to 198,000 tonnes in the same period last year. This decline reflects a mixed operational picture across Anglo American’s portfolio of copper operations, with diverging performance across different mining properties.

Los Bronces performed well, buoyed by higher ore grades and robust processing efficiency. However, this strength was insufficient to offset production challenges elsewhere. Both Quellaveco and Collahuasi faced headwinds from lower ore grades, which constrained overall copper output. These grade pressures highlight the cyclical nature of mining operations and the dependence on geological and operational factors beyond near-term management control.

The Q4 contraction underscores the complexity of maintaining consistent production levels across a geographically diverse asset base, particularly when some operations undergo grade fluctuations or capacity adjustments. This performance directly influenced the company’s reassessment of its copper outlook for fiscal years 2026 through 2028.

Updated Copper Production Forecast Through 2028

Anglo American has revised its copper production projections downward across multiple forecast windows. For fiscal 2026, the company now anticipates copper production of 700-760 thousand tonnes, compared to its prior guidance of 760-820 thousand tonnes. This represents a material reduction in expected output, signaling that operational challenges are expected to persist into the near term.

The revised copper outlook extends into fiscal 2027, with production now projected at 750-810 thousand tonnes, down from the previous forecast range of 760-820 thousand tonnes. While the revision is more modest than for FY26, it reflects ongoing caution regarding production trajectories.

Looking further ahead, for fiscal 2028, Anglo American projects copper production in the range of 790-850 thousand tonnes. This longer-dated projection suggests the company expects to stabilize and potentially improve production levels as certain projects progress and operational efficiencies are realized. The multi-year copper outlook adjustment demonstrates management’s recalibration of market expectations and project execution timelines.

Mixed Results Across Other Commodity Operations

Beyond copper, Anglo American’s operational performance showed more varied outcomes. Premium iron ore production surged 6% year-over-year to 15.1 million tonnes, driven primarily by higher output from the Kumba operation. This strength contrasts with copper’s weakness, indicating that iron ore markets may be providing more favorable operating conditions.

Manganese ore production climbed substantially by 22% to 908,500 tonnes, reflecting a return to normalized production levels following temporary disruptions caused by a tropical cyclone that impacted Australian operations in March 2024. The manganese recovery demonstrates operational resilience and production stabilization as weather-related disruptions receded.

In exiting business lines, rough diamond production fell 35% to 3.8 million carats, primarily due to scheduled maintenance shutdowns at Jwaneng and Orapa—actions aligned with the company’s strategic response to current market conditions. Steelmaking coal output declined 15% to 2.1 million tonnes, while nickel production edged upward by 3% to 10,300 tonnes, reflecting modest operational improvements in that segment.

The divergence in performance across commodities—with iron ore and manganese recovering while copper faces production headwinds—illustrates how Anglo American’s diversified portfolio responds differently to operational and market dynamics. Investors tracking the company’s copper outlook should monitor whether near-term production challenges are temporary or signal more structural constraints.