Corn Retreats in Final Trade Day of January as Markets Navigate Mixed Export Signals

Corn prices retreated 2 to 3 cents during the final trade day of January on Friday morning, marking a cautious close to the month. Despite the weakness in nearby contracts, Thursday’s session showed underlying strength with futures advancing a fractional to 2 cents higher. The shift in sentiment reflects traders reassessing market fundamentals as the year transitions into its second month.

Open interest declined by 5,812 contracts on Thursday, with the majority of liquidation activity concentrated in the March and July contracts—typically the most actively traded periods for agricultural investors. This contraction suggests some consolidation of positions as participants adjust their exposure levels heading into the new trading month.

Price Foundation Remains Resilient Amid Daily Volatility

The national cash corn price, tracked by CmdtyView, climbed 1 3/4 cents to reach $3.95 1/4 on the day, demonstrating underlying support for physical grain despite the weakness in futures. This disconnect between cash and futures markets often signals fundamental demand underneath temporary price pullbacks.

The most recent export sales data from Thursday revealed 1.649 MMT of corn was sold during the week of January 22, showing a sequential decline from the previous week but still maintaining impressive year-over-year momentum at 21.4% above the same period last year. This comparison underscores sustained global appetite for American corn supplies.

Export Flow Reveals Shifting Geographic Preferences

International demand remains geographically dispersed, with Japan emerging as the leading buyer at 365,100 MT, followed by Mexico at 350,800 MT and Colombia at 339,500 MT. This diversification across multiple end-markets provides stability to the corn export program and reduces dependency on any single trading partner.

Census Bureau trade statistics documented substantial shipment activity in November, with 7.305 MMT (287.6 mbu) of corn exported during the month—marking the second largest monthly total on record and the highest volume since last April. The continued robustness of corn shipments signals strong underlying demand from global markets seeking American supplies.

Ethanol and Distillers Exports Show Divergent Trends

November ethanol exports reached a record 211.33 million gallons, representing the second largest monthly total across any period in the dataset. This milestone demonstrates robust demand for refined corn products and suggests strong integration with energy markets. In contrast, distiller’s dried grains exports declined to 933,557 MT from year-ago levels, reflecting the competitive landscape for feed products.

Market Pricing at Key Contract Levels

Nearby March 26 corn futures closed Thursday at $4.30 3/4, up 3/4 cent, and are currently trading 2 1/2 cents lower from that level. May 26 contracts settled at $4.39, up 1 cent, now down 2 1/2 cents from Thursday’s close. July 26 corn finished at $4.45 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents, and is currently down 2 3/4 cents—reflecting the downward pressure defining the final trade day of the month across all major contract months.

As this trading day concludes January’s activity, corn markets remain balanced between supportive export flows and technical pressure that defined the end of the month.