How Robusta and Arabica Coffee Prices Slipped on Forecasted Brazil Rains—A Barchart Commodity Market Analysis

March arabica futures fell -13.25 points (-3.845%) while March robusta contracts declined -66 points (-1.58%) on Friday, marking significant weakness across both coffee varieties. The pullback reflects mounting bearish pressures stemming from persistent weather forecasts and expanding global supplies. Whether you’re tracking commodities for trading or investment purposes, understanding the interplay of these factors—rainfall, inventories, and production dynamics—is essential to navigating coffee markets. Barchart’s latest market analysis reveals a complex picture where multiple headwinds are converging to pressure prices lower.

Rainfall in Brazil’s Coffee Belt Triggers Arabica Selloff

Arabica futures hit a 5.5-month low while robusta slipped to a 3.5-week bottom, with rain forecasts over Brazil’s Minas Gerais region serving as the primary catalyst. The coffee market had been keenly anticipating drier conditions to boost yield concerns, but the meteorological outlook has shifted. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, home to the world’s largest arabica production base, received 33.9 mm of rain in the week ended January 16—a full 53% below its historical average. Despite this below-normal rainfall, forward-looking weather models predict steady precipitation over the coming seven days, prompting traders to reassess supply tightness assumptions.

The ample moisture outlook directly contradicts earlier bullish narratives around production risk, weakening the arabica rally that had been supported by weather concerns.

Vietnamese Robusta Surge and the Global Supply Glut

Vietnam’s dominance in robusta production is amplifying downward price pressure. The country’s National Statistics Office disclosed that 2025 coffee exports surged +17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, with production projected to climb +6% to 1.76 MMT for the 2025/26 crop year—a four-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) further indicated that output could rise as much as 10% if weather remains favorable, signaling robust supply momentum.

This Vietnamese expansion is particularly bearish for robusta prices, where the Southeast Asian nation commands roughly 30% of global production. As robusta supplies mount globally, price support erodes, especially when coupled with other headwinds. The Barchart commodity analysis framework highlights how supply-side dynamics from major producers can override short-term technical factors.

Brazil’s Production Expansion and Export Contraction

Brazil’s 2025 coffee output tells a different story—one of growth tempered by export weakness. Conab, Brazil’s official crop forecasting agency, raised its 2025 production estimate by 2.4% in December to 56.54 million bags, up from 55.20 million bags projected in September. This expansion signals that Brazilian farmers are expanding acreage despite lower prices, a structural bearish signal for the medium term.

However, export data paints a more complex picture. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s December green coffee exports fell -18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with arabica shipments declining -10% year-over-year and robusta exports plummeting -61%. This contraction suggests either supply chain friction or weaker export demand—both factors that could eventually support prices by tightening near-term availability.

ICE Coffee Inventories Show Recovery, Weighing on Prices

The rebound in exchange-monitored coffee inventories has become another source of downward pressure. ICE arabica inventories, which had fallen to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, rebounded to 461,829 bags by January 14. Similarly, robusta inventories rose to 4,609 lots last Friday after hitting a one-year low of 4,012 lots in mid-December.

While inventory recovery might suggest improving market liquidity, it simultaneously signals that the structural tightness narrative has weakened. From a Barchart commodity perspective, rising warehouse stocks often precede extended price corrections as the “fear of scarcity” premium dissipates.

Global Production Outlook: Record Highs Ahead

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) painted an ambitious production picture in its December 18 report. World coffee production in 2025/26 is projected to reach a record 178.848 million bags, up +2.0% year-over-year. However, the composition matters: arabica production is expected to fall -4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production surges +10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

For major origins, FAS forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 output will decline -3.1% year-over-year to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s crop will expand +6.2% to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags. These competing dynamics—Brazilian contraction alongside Vietnamese expansion—underpin the price weakness in robusta futures.

Ending global coffee stocks for 2025/26 are projected to contract by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25, a modest tightening that offers limited price support when weighed against the production expansion and inventory rebound.

Market Implications: Coffee Prices Face Structural Headwinds

The coffee market is navigating a transition from perceived scarcity to managed abundance. While certain factors—like Brazil’s export contraction and modest inventory drawdowns—offer some floor support, the preponderance of evidence suggests robusta and arabica prices face prolonged pressure. Barchart’s commodity analysis toolkit emphasizes monitoring both the macro supply picture and real-time price technicals, as coffee markets remain highly responsive to weather revisions and production guidance shifts.

For traders and commodity investors, the convergence of favorable conditions in Vietnam, production growth in Brazil, and inventory recovery across exchanges suggests caution on the upside for coffee futures.