Bitcoin's Z Score Drops to 3-Year Low: What MVRV-Z Signals About Fair Value

Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z Score has plunged to its lowest level since October 2022, according to Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish. This metric, which measures how far a coin’s price deviates from its realized value through a statistical z score, is now signaling that BTC may be approaching genuine fair value territory after the speculative excesses of recent years.

Understanding the MVRV-Z Score Decline

The MVRV-Z score metric combines Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) with standard deviation to create a normalized z score indicator that gauges market sentiment and valuation extremes. When this z score reaches extreme lows, it typically indicates the market has cooled significantly from previous overheating phases. The last time Bitcoin’s z score hit similar levels was in October 2022, when BTC traded around $29,000 – a price point that has since proven to be a major inflection point for the broader market.

The current decline in this z score suggests that despite Bitcoin’s recent appreciation to $69.72K, the asset’s price is now converging more closely with its fundamental realized value rather than being driven purely by speculative momentum.

Market Implications: When Z Scores Signal Opportunity

Data aggregated through NS3.AI platforms shows that historically, when Bitcoin’s z score reaches these depressed levels, it often precedes significant market repricing. The signal doesn’t necessarily predict immediate rallies, but rather indicates that excessive market pessimism has been wrung out of the system. At current price levels around $69.72K, the z score compression suggests market participants are pricing in more realistic risk-reward dynamics compared to earlier euphoric phases.

This z score positioning is noteworthy because it separates genuine adoption-driven growth from unsustainable hype cycles – a distinction crucial for long-term investors evaluating Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026.