U.S. core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, hitting the lowest level since March 2021, and remained flat at 0.3% month-on-month, indicating some easing of inflationary pressures. The sharp decline in energy prices was the main driver, with gasoline prices down 3.2% month-on-month and fuel prices decreasing by 5.7%, which contributed to the narrowing of the overall CPI monthly increase to 0.2%. However, service prices remain resilient, with airline ticket prices soaring 6.5% month-on-month and healthcare costs rising 0.3%, partially offsetting the price declines in goods. Housing costs, though still the main contributor to inflation (up 3% year-on-year), slowed to a 0.2% increase month-on-month, signaling a cooling trend in rent inflation. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, with the probability of a cut in June rising to 83%, but officials have expressed caution, emphasizing the need to observe data sustainability. The current decline in inflation is mainly due to base effects and one-time price adjustments, with actual price stickiness still present, and policy shifts remain uncertain.

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