Solana with red candles: Recovery from $84.78 or market trap?

The red candles that have characterized Solana in recent weeks do not necessarily signify the end of the bullish cycle. With the current price trading at $84.78 (up +7.80% in 24 hours), the market shows technical signals that deserve close attention. The on-chain data we observe suggest that beyond superficial panic selling, there is deliberate accumulation by the “smart money.”

Red candles don’t always mean capitulation

After weeks of significant corrections, many traders interpreted the decline as a sign of final exhaustion. However, from a technical perspective, the outlook is different. The RSI remains in depressed levels (around 36), a zone that historically does not indicate collapse but rather selling fatigue. When the technical thermometer hits these levels, it means that those wishing to liquidate positions have mostly done so. The downward momentum, far from accelerating, begins to show signs of slowing down.

The 3.69% drop over the past 7 days, combined with the daily rebound of 7.80%, illustrates a volatility characteristic of inflection points. It is not a uniform move downward but oscillation that reflects a change of hands. This pattern is common before significant reversals in Solana’s history.

On-chain data reveal strategic accumulation

While the general public reacts with fear to red candles, on-chain movement analysis tells a different story. Institutions and market whales are steadily acquiring positions in the $80-$100 range. This is not aggressive liquidation but methodical absorption of supply.

Both in the spot market and in the futures segment, there is buying conviction that has persisted since the start of the cycle. This strategic positioning is no coincidence: it is silent accumulation while most are mired in uncertainty.

The contrast between negative sentiment on social media and the verifiable on-chain data defines these moments of opportunity. Whales do not operate based on emotions but on cost-benefit opportunities.

Supports and resistances in the new context

From the current level of $84.78, the first important target is in the $100-$105 range. If this range is solidly broken, the technical path points toward $120-$135, where the greatest institutional accumulation has historically been observed.

If support fails, the next critical level is at $70, which would serve as a last line of defense. Below that zone, the search for a base would reach levels of $60, which were decisive in previous strong movements in 2024 and earlier cycles.

The moment of decisions

What defines these moments of extreme compression is the proportion of the move that will follow. Each week of accumulation in a narrow range increases the energy for a potential reversal. Red candles, in this context, are not a sign of the end but of reorganization.

The question each investor must ask is whether they have the patience to hold their position through the uncertainty or if they will react late to the impulse that has already begun. Solana is at a point where technical discipline and conviction in verifiable data separate wealth creators from those who only observe.

Will Solana complete an accumulation cycle from these $84.78, or does the market still require more episodes of panic before new highs? The answer will depend more on how institutions act than on the emotional noise on social media.