Macroeconomic Liquidity Game and Structural Adjustment: Bitcoin Tests Key Support, Ethereum Continues Weakness

February 14, 2026, the cryptocurrency market shows a divergent trend under the dual pressures of the U.S. government shutdown risk and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Bitcoin fluctuates around the key psychological level of $67,000, with a slight 0.01% increase over 24 hours, and its total market capitalization drops below $2.3 trillion; Ethereum continues its weak trend, with prices falling to around $1,944. Technical indicators show oversold signals but no clear signs of stabilization yet. The market is in a game of macro liquidity turning points versus endogenous growth momentum within the crypto ecosystem. Short-term, a defensive allocation strategy is recommended.

1. In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin

Price Performance and Key Levels

As of the evening of February 13, Bitcoin is quoted at $67,906, with a daily high just above $68,000. This level coincides with the lower boundary of a previous dense trading zone, holding significant technical importance. From a longer-term perspective, since the peak in December 2025, Bitcoin has retraced nearly 30%, with current prices giving back most of the gains from the bull run that started in August 2024.

Macroeconomic Drivers

The core variable today is the sharp rise in the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. According to prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a federal government shutdown before midnight on February 14 surged to 97%, then fell back to 29%, while Kalshi’s platform indicates an 88% high probability. This uncertainty directly impacts risk asset pricing, with cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile assets, being the most affected.

It is noteworthy that this shutdown risk centers on the expiration of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding. If no alternative appropriations are agreed upon, some operations of the department could be interrupted. Looking back at the longest shutdown period from October to November 2025 (43 days), risk assets experienced significant liquidity tightening and volatility spikes during that time.

Technical Analysis

From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin found temporary support near $60,000, preventing further panic selling, but the rebound remains weak, with bulls clearly lacking confidence. The daily chart shows the price has broken below all major moving averages, forming a typical bearish alignment. Volume during recent declines has not effectively contracted, indicating signs of loosening chips.

Key Support Levels: $65,000 (previous low-density zone), $60,000 (psychological level and key wave position)

Key Resistance Levels: $70,000 (short-term downtrend line), $72,000 (20-day moving average)

2. In-Depth Analysis of Ethereum

Price Performance and Relative Weakness

Ethereum is currently quoted at about $1,944, down 1.05% over 24 hours, with a cumulative decline of 35.64% over the past 22 trading days, significantly underperforming Bitcoin. This "beta amplification" characteristic is especially evident during market corrections, reflecting ETH’s elasticity as a risk asset.

Deteriorating Technical Signals

Technically, Ethereum has broken below the lower boundary of its medium-term downtrend channel, a move often indicating accelerated downside risk. The RSI indicator is below 30, entering oversold territory, but historical experience shows that in strong trend markets, oversold conditions can persist for a long time. More critically, no effective support levels are visible on the chart, suggesting further downside potential.

On-chain data shows that DeFi lock-up volumes remain high for the year, but the growth rate of stablecoin supply has slowed. The positive expectations for the Pectra upgrade (expected to launch its testnet in June 2025) are fully priced in, making it difficult to support short-term prices.

Ecosystem Competition

Ethereum’s dominant position in Layer 1 is being squeezed by high-performance public chains like Solana, with diminishing transaction fee advantages and ongoing user experience bottlenecks. Institutional fund flow data indicates that more institutional capital favors Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative, with ETH’s allocation demand relatively weak.

3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows

Fear and Greed Index

The current market sentiment indicator stands at 26 (Fear), significantly down from extreme greed levels earlier, but not yet in the panic zone (usually below 20). This suggests the market may still be in a mid-phase correction rather than at a bottom.

ETF and Institutional Dynamics

Over the past five weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of $6.63 billion, with BlackRock’s crypto investment portfolio rising from $54.77 billion at the start of the year to $102.09 billion. Despite volatile prices, institutional demand remains resilient, with long-term funds continuing to accumulate on dips.

4. Operational Strategy Recommendations

Bitcoin (BTC)

Short-term (1-2 weeks): Mainly observe and wait for a clear direction. If the price breaks below $65,000, consider reducing positions to below 30%; if volume breaks above $70,000, consider moderately re-entering to 50%.

Medium-term (1-3 months): Maintain core holdings, viewing the $60,000-$65,000 range as a strategic accumulation zone. Use dollar-cost averaging to smooth entry costs and avoid heavy single-position bets.

Ethereum (ETH)

Currently, do not attempt to bottom-fish on the left side. The technical breakdown combined with macro deterioration creates dual pressure. Wait for clear stabilization signals on the daily chart (such as increased volume on bullish candles or RSI bullish divergence) before considering entry. Short-term traders can look for oversold rebound opportunities around $1,800-$1,900, but must set strict stop-losses.

Asset Allocation Framework

Referring to the previously discussed "Golden Anchor" strategy, it is recommended to increase gold allocation to 35-40%, maintain a core position of 30-35% in Bitcoin, reduce Ethereum to 10-15%, and keep 15-20% in cash or stablecoins to hedge volatility. This allocation preserves exposure to long-term crypto growth while hedging macroeconomic risks through precious metals.

5. Risk Alerts

1. Policy Risk: Adjustments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate mechanism (such as removing the SRP cap) may temporarily increase liquidity but could reprice inflation expectations.

2. Liquidity Risk: If the U.S. government shutdown occurs, liquidity in traditional and crypto markets may contract simultaneously.

3. Technical Risk: Delays or technical issues with the Pectra upgrade could heighten concerns about Ethereum’s competitiveness.

Conclusion: The market is transitioning from a "liquidity-driven" to a "fundamentals-driven" paradigm, with short-term pain inevitable. Investors should maintain strategic resolve, avoid irrational decisions driven by sentiment lows, and strictly manage risk exposure to prepare for the next cycle.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously according to your risk tolerance.