Bitcoin's Sharp Drop Signals Potential Bear Market Territory Ahead

Bitcoin is experiencing significant selling pressure, and analysts are increasingly warning of deeper downside targets. After breaching critical support levels, BTC has tumbled below $80,000, with market sentiment deteriorating rapidly. The pattern emerging now mirrors structures observed in previous bear market cycles, raising concerns about a prolonged correction ahead.

Support Crumbles: BTC Plunges Below Key Levels

Bitcoin suffered a sharp drop of more than 6% in recent trading, pushing the price down to approximately $77,600 and establishing ten-month lows. Despite multiple recovery attempts, bulls have struggled to reclaim the $80,000 threshold. The breakdown of the $80,700 mean price level—a historically significant support zone—has emboldened bear market advocates. At the time of latest data (February 13, 2026), BTC was trading at $68.69K with a 24-hour gain of +5.12%, though the broader downtrend remains intact.

Deeper Targets Now on Traders’ Radars

Market participants are already mapping out lower liquidity zones if the decline accelerates. $74,400 represents the immediate downside target, while more pessimistic forecasts highlight $49,180 as a potential support level in an extended bear scenario. The rapid shift from bullish to bearish sentiment underscores how quickly technical breaks can reverse market psychology.

The 21-Week EMA Breakdown: A Historical Bear Market Warning

One of the most critical warning signals has emerged: Bitcoin’s breach below the 21-week exponential moving average. This technical level has historically served as a major inflection point, with breaks often preceding substantial bear market phases. Research from Rekt Capital highlights that the current pattern closely mirrors the EMA crossover seen in April 2022, which preceded months of decline. Since that critical break, Bitcoin has already fallen approximately 17%—from $90,000 toward current levels.

CME Futures Gap Could Provide Temporary Relief

Traders are monitoring a CME futures gap near $84,000, which often acts as a price magnet in volatile markets. A short-term rebound toward this level is technically possible in the coming weeks. However, such a bounce would likely be temporary unless major support zones are reclaimed and the bear market structure breaks.

On-Chain Metrics Flash Warning Signs

CryptoQuant’s latest analysis reinforces the bearish outlook. Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price of investors who acquired BTC between 12–18 months ago. Realized price—which tracks the average cost basis of coins during their last movement—has historically acted as a resistance ceiling when broken below. The current situation shows BTC underwater relative to this metric, with realized price now functioning as overhead resistance. This dynamic, combined with negative profitability metrics and slowing growth patterns, has historically aligned with extended bear market phases.

The Bear Case Strengthens

The convergence of technical breakdown, support failures, and on-chain weakness is painting a concerning picture. While a temporary bounce toward $84,000 remains possible, the structural bear trend appears intact. If historical patterns hold, deeper levels—potentially sub-$50,000—cannot be ruled out. Market participants are urged to remain cautious and implement strict risk management strategies.

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.