STANDARD CHARTERED WARNS BITCOIN COULD DIP TO $50,000 BEFORE A 2026 RECOVERY

Standard Chartered is sounding the alarm on a potential “final capitulation” phase for the cryptocurrency market. As of February 13, 2026, the bank has revised its near-term projections, suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) could slide as low as $50,000 and Ethereum (ETH) to $1,400 in the coming months. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research, cites intensifying macroeconomic headwinds and weakening ETF flows as primary drivers for this expected 30% drawdown. However, the bank frames these targets as strategic “buy levels” rather than a structural failure, maintaining a bullish year-end 2026 forecast of $100,000 for BTC and $4,000 for ETH once the market finds a durable bottom. The Final Capitulation: Standard Chartered’s Bearish Pivot The bank’s research desk suggests that the current market correction has further to run before a meaningful recovery can begin. Price Targets: The near-term outlook anticipates a 26-30% drop from current levels, with Bitcoin falling to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400. This is a significant reduction from previous bank targets of $150,000 and $7,500, respectively.The “Warsh” Factor: Analysts expect the macro backdrop to remain challenging until June 2026, when a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve is anticipated to shift liquidity expectations. Until then, the lack of imminent rate cuts continues to weigh on risk assets. ETF Fatigue: Holders More Likely to Sell Than Buy the Dip A significant shift in investor behavior within the spot ETF market is contributing to the downward pressure. Redemption Risk: After a year of being a primary driver of inflows, Bitcoin ETF holdings have fallen, with the average holder now down roughly 25% on their position.Shift in Sentiment: Geoff Kendrick observes that current ETF holders are more inclined to sell into weakness rather than defend the price, potentially amplifying downside volatility as redemptions accelerate during the capitulation phase. Structural Resilience: Why 2026 Isn’t 2022 Despite the bearish price forecast, Standard Chartered highlights a maturing market structure that remains more resilient than in previous cycles. No Platform Collapses: Unlike the 2022 “crypto winter” which saw the failure of major platforms like FTX and Celsius, the current drawdown has not triggered systemic failures. This suggests that the asset class is better capitalized and more institutionally integrated.The Recovery Path: Once the capitulation lows are hit in the next few months, the bank expects a sustained recovery through the remainder of 2026, eventually leading to a push toward the $100,000 (BTC) and $4,000 (ETH) marks by year-end. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Standard Chartered’s projections of a $50,000 Bitcoin and $1,400 Ethereum price are speculative research forecasts as of February 13, 2026. Price targets are based on current macroeconomic assumptions and ETF flow data, which can change rapidly. Cryptocurrency markets involve extreme risk, including the potential for total capital loss. Previous bank targets (e.g., $150k BTC) have been revised downward, illustrating the uncertainty of long-term predictions. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in digital assets or linked equities.

Will the $50,000 dip be the “buy of a lifetime,” or is the Standard Chartered revision a sign that the bull market is officially over?