【$RIVER Signal】Empty Position + Short Squeeze Cooling Observation

$RIVER After experiencing a round of short squeeze-style rapid surge, the market is cooling and consolidating just below a key resistance zone.

🎯Direction: Empty Position (NoPosition)

Market Analysis: 4H timeframe, price rapidly surged from 17.1 to 24.0 and then pulled back, currently oscillating around 19.7. The key resistance level at 24.0 (previous high) has not been effectively broken, forming a potential double top structure.

Core Logic:

1. Clear Short Squeeze Characteristics: Funding rate is deeply negative (-0.6221%), combined with the previous surge, indicating a typical short squeeze market. However, current open interest (OI) remains stable and has not decreased with the price pullback, suggesting shorts have not surrendered en masse, and the short squeeze momentum may be waning.

2. Contradictory Technical Indicators: RSI (58.42) is in the neutral-strong zone, but the price has broken below the EMA20 (18.11) support. ATR (2.297) indicates high volatility, but buy depth is unbalanced (-20.49%), with ask orders (Asks) accumulating significantly above 19.72, forming a supply wall.

3. Volume-Price Divergence: The latest 4H candlestick shows decreasing volume, and the buy/sell ratio (0.47) leans toward the sellers, indicating a lack of willingness to chase higher. The price has failed to hold above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (around 20.6) of the previous rally.

Currently in a chaotic phase of trend reversal. Long positions lack clear support structures and capital inflow signals; short positions face potential secondary short squeeze risks under negative funding rates, and the conditions for a strong short setup ("high rate + decreasing OI + bearish divergence") are not yet met.

Risk Control Core: The best strategy is to stay on the sidelines and wait for the market to choose a direction. If the price can volume-breakout and hold above 20.6 (previous high turned support), long opportunities can be reassessed; if it falls below 19.4 (recent low), the short structure will become clearer.

Trade here 👇 $RIVER

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