【$AR Signal】No Position | Weak rebound in a downtrend, main force has not entered

$AR In a long-term downtrend, a weak rebound occurs. Although the price rises, open interest (OI) remains stable, and funding rates are negative, indicating this is a short covering rebound driven by short sellers, not main force long positions. The 4H buy volume ratio remains below 0.5, showing weak active buying. The current price is near the EMA20 (1.8636), facing a key resistance test.

🎯 Direction: No Position (NoPosition)

Logical core: The current rebound lacks a core driver. 1) Price action: The rebound volume is average, with the latest 4H candlestick buy volume ratio at only 0.41, indicating weak active buying. 2) Derivatives data: Funding rate is negative (-0.0137%), but OI trend remains stable, with no significant increase in OI accompanying the price rise, ruling out the possibility of main force long entry and more consistent with short covering (short squeeze). 3) Technical level: Price is testing the EMA20 dynamic resistance and is within a long-term downtrend channel. RSI (48.22) is in a neutral to weak zone, with no overbought signals, indicating a lack of momentum for shorting.

Overall judgment: This is a technical rebound within a downtrend, with no signs of main force bullish intent. Before the price effectively stabilizes above EMA20 and OI significantly increases, there are no high-probability long entry conditions. Additionally, with a negative funding rate and no RSI bearish divergence, the risk of shorting is very high. The best strategy is to stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer supply and demand signals indicating a trend reversal.

Trade here: 👇 $AR

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