【$TON Signal】Hold Cash | Weak Rebound in Downtrend

$TON Continues to decline after breaking below EMA20, currently in a weak consolidation within the downtrend channel. Although the price has slightly rebounded, buying strength is weak, and the deep imbalance indicates heavy selling pressure above.

🎯 Direction: Hold Cash

Market Analysis: The 4H chart shows consecutive bearish candles, with the price suppressed below EMA20 (1.3436). The latest candlestick's buy/sell ratio is only slightly favoring buyers at 0.54, but trading volume has shrunk, indicating a volume-less rebound.

Logical Core: Key data points to a bearish pattern. 1) Funding rate at -0.0096%, negative but open interest (OI) remains stable, indicating not a short squeeze but lack of bullish confidence. 2) Deep imbalance at 29.45%, with ask orders far thinner than bid orders, clearly showing overhead selling pressure. 3) RSI at 34.98 is in the weak zone but not oversold, leaving room for further decline.

The current price is at 1.2996, closely aligned with the order wall (only 172.1 at 1.2996). Weak rebound unable to break through 1.3037 (recent minor high) is considered a sign of weakness. There is no clear support below, with the previous low at 1.2587 being a key liquidity zone.

Trading Plan: Wait for a clear signal. Going long requires: 1) Price volume confirmation above EMA20. 2) OI trend turning upward, funding rate returning to positive. 3) Significant increase in deep buy orders. Otherwise, any rebound to 1.32-1.33 (EMA20 and previous oscillation lower boundary) facing resistance is a potential shorting opportunity, but currently lacking high-probability right-side entry points.

Trade here 👇 $TON

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