ETH Overall Analysis

Price Trend: ETH has been continuously crashing from the early 2026 high of around 3400+ USD, with the lowest touching approximately 1736 USD. Currently, it has slightly rebounded to the 1925–1943 USD range (your screenshot shows the latest price around 1925–1943 USD, real-time market confirms 1925–1930 USD). Overall, it remains in a major downward channel, with the rebound only retracing about 11% of the previous decline, indicating very weak momentum. Multiple rebounds have encountered strong resistance from the EMA cluster (2050–2150), causing immediate pullbacks. The bearish trend is fully dominant, with no clear reversal structure.

Time Frame: The screenshot mainly shows daily/4H charts, displaying a complete medium-term bear channel. The short-term technical rebound after overselling (TD Up series signals + green bars for brief correction). Multiple sell signals marked as “9,” “13,” and “Red 9” confirm ongoing selling. After encountering resistance, the rebound volume decreases and pulls back, most likely a dead cat bounce. After a correction, the price is expected to continue downward to new lows.

Technical Indicators: MA/EMA: All moving averages show death crosses pressing downward. The price rebounded to touch EMA30/130 but faced resistance and fell back, with a complete bearish alignment intact. RSI: Ranges between 25–35, rebounded from extreme oversold levels but now declining again, with no bullish divergence, indicating weak momentum. MACD: Bearish cross persists, green bars enlarge again, DIFF/DEA gap widens, indicating dominant downward momentum. Volume: Significant volume during the previous decline, with volume decreasing during the rebound, showing weak buying interest.

Market Environment: Since February 2026, the crypto market has been in a deep bear market (BTC oscillating around 66k–67k with weakness, severe capital outflows across the market). ETH beta is high, continuing to amplify the decline. Fundamental factors like Layer2 and other long-term positives are completely ignored. Short-term sentiment is extremely panicked (selling on X, waiting for lower levels, discussions flooding social media).

Risks: The oversold rebound may temporarily push prices to 1980–2000 (liquidating stop-loss orders). If volume stabilizes above 2000, immediate caution is needed. However, the probability is low. Currently, after a volume-decreasing rebound, the risk-reward ratio for shorting remains attractive.

My Recommendation: Strongly Short ETH/USDT
Reason: The major bearish trend remains unchanged. The rebound is a volume-contraction correction with strong resistance from moving averages. No reversal signals from indicators, making it suitable to sell at high rebound levels. The real-time price is around 1925 USD, with significant downside potential (target below 1800, even retesting the 1736 low).

Entry Strategy: Short at the current price of 1950–1980 USD, or wait for a rebound to 2000–2150 USD to add to the short position.
Stop Loss: Set above 2200 USD (psychological level + EMA resistance), risk control at 5–15%.

Take Profit: Partial profit at 1880–1850 USD, further targets at 1800–1750 USD (extended to retest 1700–1736 zone).

Position Size: Recommend 8–12% of total funds (trend is strong but rebound volatility requires position control), leverage 3–8x (to prevent short-term wipeouts).