The "Carrying the Boat to Seek the Sword" Trap in Market Forecasts—A Trader's Experience Summary

In my two months of observation in the cryptocurrency market, I have organized and reflected on my prediction records. This process has deeply made me realize that many failed trading decisions stem from an invisible mental trap—using static, rigid methods to deal with an ever-changing market. It’s like the ancient story of “刻舟求劍” (carving a mark on a boat to find a sword)—using outdated logic to find answers that have already shifted.

When Fixed Thinking Meets a Dynamic Market

Initially, my judgment that BTC would bottom out around $8 million was relatively accurate. When the price rebounded to $90,000, I clearly predicted it would bounce back to around $98,000 to reach a stage high, then pull back. The market ultimately behaved in line with this judgment—the price indeed peaked near $98,000 before starting to decline, and has now fallen to $70,376 (latest data as of February 9: 70.45K).

In silver (XAG) trading, I pre-positioned by buying at $78, targeting $90 and $120. When the price approached $120, I kept warning the community about the risk of a strong pullback. Eventually, silver sharply retreated below $90, and my prediction was accurate. In the Binance Life project, I anticipated it would launch physical products, and after the launch, I notified the community to take profits around $0.26–$0.27. These judgments were also validated by the market.

Lessons from Prediction Failures

However, not all my predictions were successful. I stubbornly believed that BTC could not have four consecutive red candles, a judgment based on an “irrational superstition,” ignoring the real market trend. Harsh reality taught me a lesson—indeed, there were four consecutive downward candles. This mistake reminded me that the market has no absolute forbidden zones—only relative probabilities. The “刻舟求劍” thinking is to use past experience to absolutize the future, which leads to failures at market turning points.

Cognitive Upgrades and Method Optimization

I sincerely apologize for this incorrect judgment. Making mistakes is not the scary part; what’s frightening is unwillingness to admit and correct them. Moving forward, I will strengthen my professional knowledge reserve, avoid falling into fixed thinking traps, and adopt more dynamic and flexible methodologies to analyze the constantly evolving market.

Many people evaluate my silver predictions as accurate, but compared to those claiming to have made millions of dollars, it seems insignificant. I want to say: other people’s wealth has nothing to do with you. Those rich people won’t tell you when to short or when to go long, nor will they share any profits. The reason I continue to share long and short views on public platforms is because, for most ordinary followers, these analyses have real reference value.

Why Sincerely Share Trading Opinions

If you follow others only to flatter or self-deprecate, no one will truly take you seriously. The original intention of sharing these opinions is simple—respect those who trust and follow me. I don’t care about external criticism; I only care whether I have created real value and reference for my supporters.

If you have profited from these analyses during this period, or at least lost less, welcome to leave feedback in the comments. Because that is the true motivation for my continuous learning and optimization—in the infinite changes of the market, I refuse to be a fool carving marks on a boat to find a sword.