Institution: U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls Report May Be Revised Downward to a Record Low

Odaily Planet Daily reports that institutional analysis indicates a data set larger than usual is expected to reveal the extent of recent slowdown in the US labor market—or possibly show that it has not grown at all. In addition to the regular monthly non-farm employment and unemployment data, the January non-farm employment report released on Wednesday will also include the highly anticipated employment data revision. Preliminary estimates show that the annual employment data through March 2025 will be revised downward by a record 911,000 people, and this revision is expected to significantly slow employment growth. “This year’s annual benchmark revision will be more impactful than in previous years,” said Scott Anderson, Chief U.S. Economist at BMO Capital Markets in Montreal, Canada. “The current labor market is indeed at a critical point where net employment growth could either continue or contract.” Every January, when the employment report is released, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the non-farm employment data based on the more accurate but less timely Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data. This data is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers most jobs in the United States. (Jin10)