CoinShares estimates the actual scale of the quantum threat at only 10,200 BTC - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# CoinShares estimates the actual scale of the quantum threat at only 10,200 BTC

There is no urgent threat to the first cryptocurrency from the development of quantum computing. This is stated in the CoinShares report.

The company characterized the problem as a “predictable engineering challenge,” not a crisis.

CoinShares research director Christopher Bendiksen criticized popular estimates of network vulnerability. Previously, Chaincode Labs researchers suggested that between 20% and 50% of all coins are at risk of hacking. CoinShares believes these figures combine different categories of threats and distort the real picture.

According to the company, only outdated P2PK addresses with publicly visible keys are truly at risk. These hold about 1.6 million BTC (8% of the supply). Meanwhile, the amount of funds on wallets that could genuinely crash the market if compromised is only 10,200 BTC.

The remaining coins in the risk group are distributed across 32,000 addresses with an average balance of 50 BTC. Hacking them would take too much time even under the most optimistic technological development scenarios.

Technical Chasm

The report’s authors emphasized the weakness of current quantum computers. To crack a public key in a day, a system with 13 million physical qubits would be required. This exceeds the power of the most advanced modern machines by 100,000 times.

“Google Willow has only 105 qubits. Adding each subsequent qubit exponentially complicates maintaining system stability,” explained Ledger’s CTO Charles Guilleme.

Recall that in January, analyst James Chack stated that the main reason for the weakness of the first cryptocurrency is large-scale sales by long-term holders, not concerns about quantum computing.

Later, Benchmark experts characterized the threat to Bitcoin as “long-term” and “manageable.”