The American markets are now regaining their balance after government shutdown warnings and their impact on Bitcoin

In early 2025, the U.S. markets were on the brink of a potential crisis. At that time, the probability of a federal government shutdown reached 75%, raising concerns among Bitcoin traders and digital asset investors about liquidity and price impacts. However, despite these serious warnings, the market demonstrated resilience, especially when compared to a previous government shutdown that lasted a full 43 days, suggesting that the impact might be limited this time.

The prediction platform PolyMarket recorded over $13.3 million in bets on the likelihood of a shutdown before midnight on January 30. The picture became more complex when examining the details of the political dispute: the Democratic caucus in Congress refused to support a bill funding the Department of Homeland Security, with Democratic leader Chuck Schumer explicitly opposing any legislation funding this department until comprehensive reforms are made.

How Market Analysts Predicted Bitcoin’s Response to the Potential Government Shutdown

A well-known analyst called “Crypto Oracle” issued sharp warnings about the pessimistic scenario. He had correctly predicted the October 2025 shutdown and warned this time that a full government shutdown would send shockwaves through both traditional and digital markets. He projected a severe correction of 30–40% in Bitcoin’s price, setting the “fear zone” between $65,000 and $75,000.

This predictive scenario was based on painful experience: in October 2025, when a full government shutdown actually occurred, the U.S. Treasury absorbed about $1 trillion, pulling approximately $700 billion of liquidity out of risky markets. BitMEX analysts described that period as “depriving risky assets of capital,” reflecting the intense pressure experienced by digital markets.

Liquidity Decline and the U.S. Markets Now: Studying the Impact of the Expected Shutdown

But the situation in January 2025 was fundamentally different. Six out of twelve spending bills had already been signed into law. In other words, the Departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce, and Energy had secured full funding for the fiscal year. Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security held a financial reserve of $178 billion from the large funding law passed the previous year, allowing its operations to continue uninterrupted.

Based on these facts, the Treasury account buildup was expected to be much smaller this time. According to BitMEX analysts’ assessments, the contraction in liquidity would be limited compared to the previous crisis. This means that the pressure on risky assets like Bitcoin might not reach the critical levels anticipated.

Why Experts Anticipated a Last-Minute Deal in the U.S. Markets

Historical data points to an interesting pattern supporting moderate optimism. According to an analysis by a well-known analyst on X called SGX, between 2013 and 2023, out of five expected government shutdown crises, only three actually occurred — a 60% rate of last-minute resolutions. This indicates that most crises in the U.S. Congress tend to end with surprise settlements before the deadline.

SGX justified the possibility of avoiding a shutdown with several realistic factors: Republicans could separate the Department of Homeland Security funding bill and pass the rest with a 60-vote majority; some Democrats might be willing to compromise if the stricter border provisions were removed. Economic pressures also played a role: a one-week shutdown costs the U.S. economy $4–6 billion with market losses of 2–3%, a political burden neither party desires.

Bitcoin Maintains Its Stability: What’s Next After the Government Shutdown Predictions

Returning to the current reality in February 2026, a very different picture emerges. Spot Bitcoin funds experienced net outflows of $1.33 billion during the week ending January 23, 2025. However, analysts attributed these movements to multiple factors: Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, earnings reports from major tech giants, and not solely fears of a government shutdown.

Now, Bitcoin is trading at $73.74K, up 0.87% over the past 24 hours. Although the current price is about 42% below its all-time high of $126.08K reached in October 2025, this reflects a natural correction after a strong rally, not a collapse caused by a political crisis.

What’s noteworthy is that the U.S. markets now show greater capacity to absorb political shocks. The pessimistic scenarios warned by analysts like Crypto Oracle did not fully materialize. On the contrary, the market has demonstrated that even with a 75% chance of a government crisis, institutional, political, and economic mechanisms work together to avoid catastrophic scenarios. This reinforces confidence that digital markets are no longer just high-risk assets in isolation but are now part of a broader system with increased institutional protection.