Let's talk about the market trend. Looking solely at the price structure, it’s indeed not very promising anymore. Until new variables emerge, further decline remains the higher probability path. For Bitcoin’s next truly meaningful extreme level, I personally lean towards around 58,000 USD, while the 60,000–80,000 USD range is more likely a zone of repeated digestion, and the duration won't be very short. As for Ethereum and other assets, I won't go into detailed analysis. The reality is, when Bitcoin is doing well, they may not necessarily perform that well... When Bitcoin is underperforming, it only gets worse. From this current position, unless a major variable appears that can change the capital structure significantly—such as a clear shift among gold holders selling gold to buy Bitcoin... or some genuinely unexpected positive development that can reshape market narratives, creating a “single bullish candle changing three views” scenario—otherwise, the difficulty of moving upward is quite high. Honestly, this bull market itself has been quite poor. The structural changes in the crypto market are too significant. Halving, ETFs, institutional entry, presidential endorsements, regulatory pathways... these once highly anticipated positive factors have basically been fully digested in this cycle. If we truly enter a bear market next, I can't currently foresee a better expectation, and it’s worth continuing to “recharge” at this level. Last cycle, newcomers could still make some money and even promote pyramid schemes among friends. This cycle, they get wiped out immediately... and stay silent. Only the sharpest can still remain in the market now. In the past, crypto could make enough money with a high risk-reward ratio, so I dared to almost go all-in on the crypto space, rarely considering other asset allocations. But after this cycle, one thing has become increasingly clear: when the profit margins in crypto are no longer significantly different from other markets, or even riskier, the future definitely requires more rational, diversified asset allocation. It’s not that I don’t believe in the crypto market, but it’s no longer the “single track, high profit win rate” market it used to be.

BTC-0,05%
ETH1,67%
View Original
post-image
post-image
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
No comments
  • Pin

Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)