January 26: Bitcoin's correction lasting over two months: is it a correction of Wave 4 or the end of Wave 5?

Today, let's discuss Old Wang's view on the market trend and the three possible scenarios for the later stages. The first Wave 5 initiation (Wave 4 ends)). If the Wave 4 correction ends, the main upward movement of Wave 5 begins: then Bitcoin will break through its historical high to reach 145,000-150,000. The second scenario is the continuation of Wave 4; if Wave 4 has not ended, the correction will continue within a range: the third scenario is the end of Wave 5 (Wave A begins), with the weekly K-line breaking below 82,000. If the weekly close also breaks below 78,000, then 126,000 will be the peak of Wave 5, entering a large Wave A. For spot traders holding a long-term perspective, it is recommended to continue observing and patiently waiting.

Since dropping from 126,000 to 80,000, the price has been consolidating for over two months. In the short term, the price has reached a critical point at the EMA 100-day moving average. If the price breaks below this level, it is necessary to prevent the bears from testing previous lows again. Brothers who are taking the northbound route should consider exiting in time. Personally, I think placing a buy order near the 100-day moving average for a northbound position offers good value. Last night, I placed a buy order at 86,500, favoring this contrarian approach. Using small risk control to seek gains is feasible. The four-hour MACD moving average is turning upward. If the bulls volume up with a bullish engulfing candle, it is highly likely to push again toward 90,000. Whether Wave 5 ends or Wave 4 correction continues, we should wait patiently. Chart 1 shows Wave 5 ending with a large Wave A; Chart 2 shows Wave 4 correction leading to Wave 5. Short-term traders should manage risk well, trade within the range, and exit promptly when the trend breaks. This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has a 2.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut; 97.2% chance of holding steady.