Strategist Warns Crypto Echoes 1929 With Bitcoin Driving Downside Risk Debate

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Strategist Warns Crypto Echoes 1929 With Bitcoin Driving Downside Risk Debate Original Link: Crypto markets are flashing historic warning signs as 1929-era parallels revive debate over valuation stress and downside risk, with bitcoin emerging as a potential catalyst in a fragile global market moment.

Bitcoin at the Center of a Historic Market Moment as 1929 Parallels Ignite Debate

A senior commodity strategist from a major financial intelligence firm shared this week a series of posts comparing crypto market behavior with historic U.S. financial cycles, highlighting perceived parallels with 1929-era equities, valuation stress across assets, and downside risks for bitcoin.

The strategist asserted:

“Crypto’s rhyme with U.S. stocks in 1929 – The performance of cryptos since 2024 closely matches the U.S. stock market after 1928, auguring a similar outcome.”

He added: “Down about 16% to Jan. 22, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) matches the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the same period starting 96 years ago.” The strategist framed the comparison as a warning signal, emphasizing that extended correlations between speculative assets and overheated equity markets historically preceded sharp reversals rather than soft landings.

Expanding on risk signals, the strategist described another dynamic under pressure: “The cheapest US Treasuries vs. gold since 1982 and elevated stock-market cap-to-GDP (last matched on a year-end basis in 1928) may be a tinderbox awaiting a reversion spark, and bitcoin is a top potential catalyst.”

In a separate analysis, he detailed a potential ceiling scenario, noting that bitcoin, often labeled “pristine collateral,” has been losing ground to U.S. Treasuries since extreme price and yield levels emerged in 2025. While the analysis leans cautious, broader market data continues to show bitcoin adoption expanding among institutions, regulated spot products sustaining inflows, and network fundamentals remaining resilient relative to prior macro drawdowns, reinforcing its role as a long-term, non-sovereign asset alongside traditional markets.

Key Questions

Why is bitcoin being compared to the 1929 stock market?

Crypto performance since 2024 closely mirrors U.S. equities just before the 1929 crash.

What does the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index show?

The BGCI is down about 16% through Jan. 22, matching the Dow’s decline after 1928.

How do U.S. Treasuries factor into bitcoin risk?

Rising Treasury yields have made bonds more attractive, pressuring bitcoin relative to traditional safe assets.

Is institutional bitcoin adoption slowing?

No, data shows institutional adoption and spot product inflows remain resilient despite macro risks.