Can gold break through $5000?

Currently, spot gold is fluctuating above $4900, just one step away from the $5000 threshold. Considering core drivers and potential risks, the probability of breaking through is high, but short-term pullback interference should be watched.
The logic supporting a breakthrough of $5000 is clear. On the geopolitical front, escalating Middle East tensions and intensified global geopolitical games continue to drive safe-haven buying, becoming the core catalyst for gold prices. On the funding and policy side, the Fed's easing expectations have increased, lowering the cost of holding gold. The private sector is also increasing gold holdings, with ample reallocation potential of existing funds. Coupled with de-dollarization processes and central banks' ongoing gold purchases, this solidifies long-term support. Institutions like Goldman Sachs have also raised their target price to $5400, reinforcing market bullish sentiment.
Potential risks cannot be ignored. The short-term rally has been large, with resistance near $4976. Diminishing daily momentum could trigger profit-taking, and a correction to the support zone of $4907-$4935 is possible. Meanwhile, divergence in Fed policies and sticky US inflation may restrict the pace of rate cuts. If geopolitical risks ease temporarily, safe-haven support could weaken.
Overall, breaking through $5000 is highly probable. It is recommended to follow the trend, and after a correction to the $4920-$4930 range and stabilization, consider long positions with a stop loss below $4900. Avoid chasing high prices at the top, strictly control positions. After breaking through, the target can be around $5061; during pullbacks, rely on key supports for low-level allocations. The medium- to long-term bull market pattern remains unchanged.