Trump Says Locking in Next Fed Chair Candidate, BlackRock Executive Emerges as "Dark Horse"

On January 23, U.S. President Trump announced that he has completed interviews with candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair and hinted that the final choice is a "very respected, highly renowned" heavyweight who will succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends this May.

Trump revealed that the final candidate is "almost only one person" in his mind, but did not disclose a specific name. The publicly listed candidates include National Economic Council Chair Kevin Hasset, BlackRock Fixed Income Head Rick Rieder, current Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller, and former Board Member Kevin Warsh. Among them, Trump has indicated that Hasset is more likely to remain in his current role at the White House.

Notably, after Trump recently praised BlackRock executive Rieder as "impressive," the call for his nomination has significantly increased. Prediction market Kalshi shows that Rieder's chances of being nominated have risen to 33%, roughly double that of early this week, and ten days ago, the probability was only 3%. Nevertheless, former Fed Governor Warsh still leads with a 45% chance, though the margin has narrowed.

Tensions between Trump and Powell continue. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for "acting too slowly" on rate cuts and downplayed Powell's influence on remaining on the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends. Treasury Secretary Yellen previously stated that Trump may announce the final decision next week. The market generally believes that the new Fed Chair will have a significant impact on U.S. monetary policy and global financial markets.