【ETH Weekly Chart Deep Dive | Price Center for Long-Term Direction Selection】#加密市场观察

Long-term Structure and Position Assessment
From a weekly perspective, ETH is at a “critical watershed” that will determine its long-term pattern. The current price is $3008, precisely at the convergence of several long-term technical factors: below is the weekly key moving averages MA50 (3066) and MA100 (3107), forming a support zone of $3060-$3110; above, it faces a strong resistance zone of $3500-$3650 formed by MA20 (3524) and MA30 (3648). The market’s decision in this area will define the trend direction in the coming months.

Core Technical Support and Resistance Framework

1. Core Defensive Zone Below:
· $3060-$3110: The convergence zone of MA50 and MA100. This area has provided effective support multiple times since 2024 and is a crucial boundary between bull and bear structures. An effective weekly close below this zone will send a strong signal of trend weakening.
· Ultimate Defense Line: $2055 (the previous cycle’s starting platform), serving as a long-term support reference in extreme cases.
2. Overhead Resistance and Space Switch:
· Primary resistance at $3150-$3200 (the lower end of the previous dense trading zone).
· A true shift in strength/weakness requires breaking through the MA resistance zone of $3500-$3650, which is a critical barrier to resuming an upward trend.
3. Clear Warnings from Momentum Indicators:
· MACD confirms medium-term weakening: the weekly MACD has formed a death cross, with DIF and DEA lines trending downward, and the histogram (-143.7) turning green and continuing to lengthen. This clearly indicates that the upward momentum on the weekly level has exhausted, and the market has officially entered a correction cycle.
· RSI at a neutral decision point: reading 44.61, in a neutral-weak zone, indicating the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for future directional choices.

Bull-Bear Strategy Derivation and Focus of Observation
The current weekly ETH chart’s core contradiction is that the effectiveness of long-term moving average support is being severely tested by medium-term momentum weakening.

· Bullish Defense Path: The price must hold above the support zone of $3060-$3110 (or nearby) and build a solid weekly bottom structure (such as a double bottom or head and shoulders), gradually digesting the negative impact of the MACD death cross. This is the only way to maintain the bull market structure.
· Bearish Dominance Path: The price fails to rebound strongly, cannot regain above $3200, and ultimately closes weekly below the $3060 support. This will confirm that the medium-term correction has escalated into a longer-term weak pattern, with downside targets directly pointing to the $2500-$2700 zone, or even testing lower supports.