Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin dead? The truth behind the liquidity concentration in 2025

Question

【CryptoWorld】The four-year cycle myth of Bitcoin may need to be reexamined. Market fluctuations are no longer solely driven by the self-fulfilling narrative of time cycles, but increasingly by the focus of liquidity flows and capital attention.

Based on OTC trading data, the transmission of crypto-native wealth in 2025 is indeed weakening. Why? Investment tools like ETFs and DATs continuously supply demand to the broader market assets, but they act like a “wall,” causing capital to circulate within this zone and making it difficult for funds to naturally flow into small and medium-cap coins. Meanwhile, retail investors’ attention has been diverted by concepts like AI, rare earths, and quantum in the stock market, making 2025 an extremely concentrated year.

You will notice that the rebound cycles of altcoins have significantly shortened. Last year (2024), a rebound could last about 60 days; this year, only 20 days. Behind this is the gradual depletion of liquidity and the rapid fading of investor enthusiasm.

Will 2026 bring change? At least one of these three things needs to happen: First, ETFs and DATs expand their investment scope, such as the real implementation of ETFs for SOL and XRP. Second, mainstream coins break out strongly, with Bitcoin or Ethereum experiencing a surge, generating wealth effects and driving the entire market. Third, retail investors shift their attention from stocks to crypto, with new capital entering and large-scale stablecoin minting.

In simple terms, the key in 2026 is whether liquidity can truly diffuse beyond mainstream coins or if this concentration pattern continues.

ParanoiaKing · Accepted Answer

The four-year cycle is dead, now it's all about the liquidity game. Big players eat the meat, retail investors drink the soup.

That ETF wall is really solid; small-cap coins are basically out of the game.

Altcoins' rebound has shrunk from 60 days to 20 days, which is ridiculous. How much longer can this go on?

AI and quantum computing have really captured retail investors' hearts. Crypto has indeed cooled down.

Liquidity exhaustion has been obvious for a while; only the authorities are slow to admit it.

Those still playing with altcoins are probably just big fools.

Bitcoin dominates the market, everything else is just a foil, really.

The concentration is frighteningly high; it feels like the entire ecosystem is shrinking.

ETFs are here, but ordinary people haven't benefited at all; they're just getting cut again.

MechanicalMartel · Answer

The four-year cycle is dead; now it's just a liquidity game.

Wait, the analogy of the ETF wall is interesting; it feels like big funds are playing their own game.

Altcoins' rebound has shortened from 60 days to 20 days; this data is truly remarkable.

Alright, retail investors are once again being weeded out by those stock market concepts.

In an era of liquidity drought, who still believes in the cycle theory?

GamefiGreenie · Answer

It's the same old story again. I've already seen through the four-year cycle failure.

Can't make money and still blame it on liquidity?

The "wall" of ETFs traps small coins tightly. How are retail investors supposed to play?

Altcoins rebounded from 60 days to 20 days? That's just cutting us off.

Liquidity exhaustion sounds nice, but it just means no one is willing to buy the dip.

Big capital plays by itself, and we can only stand aside. It's frustrating.

BoredRiceBall · Answer

Altcoins' rebound has been cut from 60 days directly to 20 days, which is almost a complete wipeout...

The "ETF wall" theory is spot on; capital is just swirling around there, and retail investors can only watch.

The four-year cycle has broken down; liquidity is the real boss.

I've said it before, 2025 will be the game for Bitcoin and Ethereum; forget about other coins.

If this continues, the survival space for small-cap coins is really getting narrower and narrower.

Liquidity has peaked; what's the next step?

OnchainArchaeologist · Answer

The four-year cycle theory should have gone bankrupt long ago; it's essentially just survivor bias.

The ETF wall metaphor is brilliant—big money is just trying to trap retail investors.

Altcoins cool down in 20 days? Last year they could last 60 days, now they can't even get a sip of soup.

Liquidity exhaustion is actually a new term used by big money to harvest retail investors.

To be honest, it's still because too many retail investors are drawn away by AI stocks; there's no one left in crypto.

ImpermanentPhobia · Answer

Is the four-year cycle dead? It should have died long ago. Anyway, I didn't make any profit from this wave... Locking the market with ETFs is truly outrageous, small coins have completely become toys🤷 Retail investors have all moved to the stock market to play with AI, and we're still here watching altcoins for 20 days and it's over😅

Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin dead? The truth behind the liquidity concentration in 2025

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