Cryptocurrency market sentiment has not yet reached extremes; bottoming signals are currently insufficient.

Market Fear Index Remains Low, Experts Warn of Overly Optimistic Rebound Expectations

According to on-chain data platform Santiment's monitoring, the current sentiment indicators in the crypto market have not yet shown true signs of extreme fear. As of the latest data, the BTC fear and greed index remains in the extreme fear zone at 20 points, but this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed—key is the trend of social media sentiment.

Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich has identified an interesting phenomenon through social media sentiment analysis: market participants generally have strong expectations for a rebound after recent declines, and this optimism is precisely a “false signal” before the market bottoms out. Historical data shows that when retail-driven bullish sentiment begins to emerge, it often indicates that the real bottom has not yet arrived.

Further Downside for Bitcoin Exists, Technical Pressure Is Clear

Bitcoin is currently trading around $95.47K, but Maksim Balashevich expects it may face greater downward pressure in the short term, with support levels below around $75,000, implying a potential decline of approximately 14.77% from current levels. More notably, recent policy shifts by the Bank of Japan have added uncertainty— the country's central bank has raised interest rates to 0.75%, and similar tightening policies in the past have triggered Bitcoin corrections of about 20%.

Fidelity Global Macro Research Director Jurrien Timmer offers a more conservative outlook. Based on his analysis framework, Bitcoin could retest the $65,000 level within 2026, which indicates a more significant downside than the current price.

Market Sentiment Diverges, Stronger Signals Needed to Confirm Bottom

From market sentiment data, the current bearish sentiment in the crypto market has reached 50%, indicating considerable disagreement among market participants. True market bottoms are usually accompanied by extreme consensus in sentiment—either overwhelming fear or complete despair. The current relatively balanced sentiment state suggests that the market adjustment process may not yet be fully exhausted.

Many industry insiders agree: it is still premature to declare a bottom before social media sentiment fully flips to extreme fear and retail investors completely give up hope for a rebound. This process may require further price tests to complete.