Gold price on the exchange faces pressure at US$ 4,500 as the market awaits signals from the Federal Reserve

Profit-taking limits the advance of the precious metal despite geopolitical support

The yellow metal (XAU/USD) has recently cooled near the psychological barrier of US$ 4,500, a level reached during Wednesday’s Asian trading session. Investors’ profit appetite, after a positive week, has slowed the upward momentum, even amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

The dynamics supporting gold prices on the exchange remain anchored in two pillars: regional tensions escalating in the Americas, with signals from President Trump regarding Greenland, Colombia, and Mexico, as well as the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. These dovish expectations, combined with ongoing pressure on the US dollar (USD), serve as cushions for the commodity that does not generate yields.

Factors shaping the scenario for XAU/USD

The geopolitical context remains tense, with no progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, turbulence in Iran, and unresolved issues in Gaza—all factors reinforcing gold’s appeal as a store of value. According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants are pricing in the possibility of interest rate adjustments in March, followed by further cuts by the end of the year.

Statements from Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin reinforced the institution’s flexibility to respond to incoming economic data, considering risks to employment goals and inflation stability. This asymmetric message regarding U.S. monetary policy continues to support gold prices on the exchange.

Economic calendar as the next catalyst

The upcoming U.S. economic releases will be crucial in shaping the next moves. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report, ISM services activity index, and JOLTS job openings will provide preliminary readings. However, the focus will be on the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, which will attract traders’ attention. Consumer inflation data, due next Tuesday, will complement the overall picture of signals for future monetary policy decisions.

Any indication of a resilient labor market or persistent inflation could shift expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, directly impacting the relative strength of the US dollar and, consequently, the performance of XAU/USD.

Technical outlook: what indicators reveal

The 100-hour simple moving average remains below spot prices, establishing a dynamic support level near US$ 4,400. The MACD indicator shows a fragile setup, with its line crossing below the signal and remaining in negative territory, while the histogram expands downward, suggesting declining momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 48.58, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers, with current momentum neutral. For an optimistic tone to return, stabilization of this indicator would be necessary, along with a bullish crossover of the MACD and an RSI move above the 50 mark.

In the absence of this improvement, gold prices on the exchange may remain under pressure, with short-term support materialized in the congestion zone between US$ 4,450 and US$ 4,445. A break below the 100-hour moving average would open the way for further losses, while holding above it would contain the short-term decline.