#数字资产市场动态 Is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February rate hike window closing? Analysts reveal potential risks

Recently, a voice has been sweeping through the financial circles—analyst Stephen Miller from investment firm GSFM bluntly states: The Reserve Bank of Australia must act in February; delaying will only bring bigger trouble. This is not alarmist talk; the underlying data is truly concerning.

**The economy is overheating: why can’t the central bank sit still**

First, look at consumption. The latest data shows a rebound in spending that exceeds expectations, indicating that residents still have money and are spending quite vigorously. This is bad news for inflation.

Next, employment. The unemployment rate is basically at its bottom, and the labor market is extremely tight. Companies can’t find workers, and wage pressures are mounting.

The most painful part is productivity. Growth has almost stagnated, but unit labor costs are rising steadily—in other words, companies are spending more money, but output hasn’t increased much. This is an invisible bomb pushing inflation higher.

Miller pointed out the core contradiction: in February, they are still on the sidelines, then they become passive. Mild rate hikes now are equivalent to timely braking; waiting until the situation worsens will require a much sharper turn of the steering wheel, and the economy will suffer much greater shocks.

**Dilemma and choices**

The Reserve Bank of Australia faces a dilemma. On one side is the hot economic data, clearly pointing to inflationary pressures; on the other side is the concern that raising rates could trigger a recession. But the data is in front of us: the longer you wait to act, the higher the cost.

What do you think? $BTC $ETH How strong will long-term holders’ feelings about inflation be?