The Lighter project is currently experiencing repeated swings at low levels. The 1.86 to 2.00 range is a key support zone in the near term. If this support fails, the next target range is approximately 1.5-1.6, and close attention should be paid to price performance during this period.

In the medium term, whether LIT can return above $3 or even retest previous highs depends on two core factors. First, whether the protocol's TVL and trading volume can continue to rise, as only then can sufficient transaction fees be generated to support the buyback mechanism; second, whether the scale of buybacks can be significantly increased. Frankly, the current buyback scale is indeed less than ideal, and the market generally feels that "thunder with little rain."

Based on the current situation, the most realistic expectation is that in the first half of 2026, LIT may continue to fluctuate at the bottom and gradually trend upward, unless there is a major product upgrade or a second wave of market rally.

Ultimately, the recent decline of LIT is the result of three overlapping pressures—common sell-offs after new tokens launch, buyback efforts falling short of market expectations, and fierce competition within the sector. From its peak at the beginning of the year to entering a correction phase, the pace has indeed been rapid.