Cooling of selling pressure, accumulation of chips, the conditions for Bitcoin to break through $100,000 are taking shape

Bitcoin prices recently rebounded to around $97,000, re-entering the historically dense supply zone between $93,000 and $110,000. But more noteworthy is a key turning point revealed by on-chain data: the profit-taking velocity of long-term holders has significantly slowed, indicating that selling pressure above the market is easing markedly. According to Glassnode’s analysis, this change creates conditions for Bitcoin to continue its upward movement.

Selling Pressure: From “Flood” to “Trickle”

Data comparison reveals a sharp decline in supply pressure

The behavior change of long-term holders (wallets holding coins for over 5 months) best illustrates the point. Comparing data from two periods:

This is not just a numerical decrease but a qualitative shift in market supply pressure. When profit-taking by long-term holders shifts from a “flood” to a “trickle,” it means that the most resolute investors, those least affected by short-term volatility, have essentially completed their profit-taking. This typically signals a transition from the “distribution phase” to the “chip accumulation phase.”

The digestion of historical supply zones is underway

Bitcoin has deep historical supply within the $93,000-$110,000 range. Since November last year, multiple rebound attempts have been blocked at the lower boundary of this zone, each accompanied by new sell orders. But the situation is changing now. As profit-taking pressure from long-term holders cools, supply within this zone is gradually being absorbed. Glassnode points out that while profit-taking still exists, its intensity is now clearly lower than during the previous concentrated distribution phase.

Deep Changes in Market Participant Behavior

What does the “silence” of long-term holders mean?

When OG-level long-term holders cease aggressive selling, the market enters a delicate balance period. Two possible scenarios often occur during this time: one, the market bottoms out and prepares for the next rally; two, the market is in a mid-term correction transition. Based on current on-chain data characteristics, the former is more likely.

The “silence” of long-term holders sends a signal: chips are shifting from those easily shaken out to believers. During this process, the market’s liquidity structure is also being reshaped.

Large-scale institutional and corporate deployment

Contrasting with retail investors’ profit-taking is the large-scale deployment by institutions and corporations. Over the past six months, corporate Bitcoin holdings have surged by 260K BTC, more than tripling the global Bitcoin mining output during the same period. MicroStrategy holds over 680,000 BTC, and spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to absorb new supply. These demand-side forces are forming a new balance with the easing supply.

Technical Outlook: Conditions for Breakthrough Are Forming

Reversal signals triggered by short-term liquidations

In the past week, Bitcoin’s rapid rebound triggered large-scale short liquidations, with total liquidation reaching $679 million within 24 hours, including $592 million from shorts. Such extreme liquidations often occur near trend reversal points, indicating that the market’s extreme bearish sentiment is being rapidly corrected.

Possibility of breaking key zones

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has confirmed an ascending triangle breakout, with a theoretical target directly at $98,000-$100,000. Coupled with the fundamental support from cooling profit-taking pressure among long-term holders, the conditions for testing $100,000 are gradually coming together. However, Glassnode emphasizes a critical condition: only if supply within the $93,000-$110,000 range is effectively absorbed can the market potentially see a more sustained structural reversal.

Risks to Watch

Uncertainty in macro variables

Although on-chain data and technical signals point to positive prospects, macro environment variables remain. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate further, risk aversion could rise, exerting short-term pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. Additionally, uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies and US political developments could impact market sentiment in the short term.

Fragility of the spot market

Despite some positive signals in derivatives markets, the spot market remains fragile. US spot ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, and ETF holders’ profit levels remain high, indicating that profit-taking risks are still elevated. This structural fragility suggests that even if a breakout occurs, the market may face repeated tests.

Summary

The clear cooling of profit-taking among long-term holders marks a transition in the Bitcoin market from an extreme distribution phase to a chip accumulation period. Coupled with large-scale institutional deployment, a sharp short-term short squeeze, and bullish technical signals, conditions for Bitcoin to break $100,000 are gradually forming. However, this process is not instantaneous; the market needs to gradually digest historical sell pressure within key zones and also contend with potential macro shocks. For traders, the key is to observe whether this supply absorption is truly effective and whether macro risks will interfere with short-term trends.