#比特币价格走势 After reviewing Kong Jianping and Bitwise's latest viewpoints, the price driving logic of Bitcoin is indeed shifting, which warrants close attention.

The previous narrative was clear—each rally was the result of cognitive diffusion, from geeks to retail investors to institutions. But after 2024, the situation has changed. ETF and large institutional holdings have altered the supply and demand dynamics, with some BTC transforming into long-term dormant assets, similar to the logic of gold entering the central bank system. When chips are locked in, the number of tradable sellers decreases, and the price driving force shifts from cognitive diffusion to supply contraction.

The implication of this shift is—next rally may no longer rely on new narratives or beliefs.

Looking at Bitwise's forecast, in the next ten years, Bitcoin is more likely to feature "steady strength but reduced volatility," making extreme surges less likely to recur. They mention that retail investors are exiting at the end of the year due to four-year cycle expectations, reflecting a decrease in rapid liquidity.

On-chain signals also support this—large holdings are increasing, and activity is diverging. If supply is indeed shrinking to become the main driving force, then future focus should be on whale locking behavior and contract holdings changes, rather than simply market sentiment. This will be a more "cool" upward process.