At this moment, it could very well be the beginning of a Bitcoin bull market.

Analyst Hayes's logical chain is quite clear and convincing: government deficits continue to expand, leading to a sustained increase in national debt issuance. To address this situation, the Federal Reserve has begun to secretly expand its balance sheet through SRF (Special Repo Facility)—which is essentially a form of QE. Dollar liquidity flows continuously into the market, ultimately reaching risk assets including Bitcoin. Looking at historical data, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and Bitcoin price movements have almost formed a perfect positive correlation.

Based on this logic, Hayes makes a bold prediction: this liquidity-driven bull market could push Bitcoin to a high of $200,000 by early 2026.

It sounds truly exciting. But there are also deeper considerations behind this: is this rally driven by government debt and monetary expansion the ultimate validation of Bitcoin as "digital gold," or is it another dangerous bubble brewing? Can the Fed's "hidden QE" truly continue without damage? These questions have no simple answers.

What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments.