Bitcoin is now standing at a quite special position. From the market perspective, this is not only a price rally but also an ultimate showdown between bulls and bears at the $100,000 mark.

Let's first look at the larger cycle rhythm. On the daily chart, a bullish arrangement has already formed, and the slope is surprisingly steep. After rebounding from $84,450, BTC has launched a second wave of attack, now directly targeting the previous high of $97,924. How strong is the inertia of this trend? On weekly and monthly levels, there are no signs of any disruption.

But here’s the problem. Switching to the 4-hour chart, the atmosphere changes a bit. The price is oscillating repeatedly at high levels, the MACD histogram begins to shrink, and the KDJ is showing a death cross downward at high levels—indicating that the short-term bullish momentum is waning. Looking at the 1-hour level, a small head-and-shoulders pattern is even emerging, and the price has broken below the MA7 moving average. This is the so-called "stagnation" signal: upward momentum is insufficient, but the trend has not yet reversed.

The core contradiction lies here: short-term profit-taking is eager to lock in gains, while long-term bulls are still holding tightly onto key support levels.

From a trading perspective, this opportunity has a win rate of about 4 stars. The reason is straightforward—this is a typical setup of "going with the big trend but against the small trend." The bullish fundamentals on the daily and weekly charts are intact, and any pullback is an opportunity for long-term holders to enter. But real risks also exist: the $100,000 psychological profit-taking point is a key level for traders worldwide, and volatility at this level can be amplified infinitely, increasing the likelihood of shakeouts.

How should the trading strategy be built? Prepare in two ways. A conservative approach is to wait until the 1-hour chart re-establishes a key support level, confirming that the short-term downtrend has halted before entering. Although this might cause missing some of the upward move, it significantly reduces risk. Aggressive traders can try small positions near the support level, but must set strict stop-losses, as the volatility at this height can quickly shake out many traders.