The recent market movements are quite interesting. The three major US stock indices are starting to weaken, with the S&P 500 down 0.53%, the Dow Jones down 0.09%, and the Nasdaq dropping 1%. The tech sector is feeling the pressure, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all falling more than 2%.

On the macro front, there are a few points worth noting. The case regarding Trump's tariff policy was supposed to be decided by the Supreme Court yesterday, but it has now been delayed. This delay actually favors the advancement of his policies. Additionally, the situation in Iran seems to be on the verge of change, as Trump has stated he will continue to monitor the developments, and the US government has issued quite a positive statement. According to Polymarket data, the current market expectation of the probability of Iran being attacked by the US has reached 57%. The US is also considering suspending all visa applications to 75 countries.

Speaking of BTC, this rally is indeed closely linked to geopolitical volatility. Noticing that Bitcoin and gold are rising in resonance indicates that funds are seeking safe-haven assets. BTC has now surged to 97,000, and the key point to watch is whether it can break through the weekly resistance at 98,000.

There are two very important observation points. If BTC can stay above 98,000 and then break through 100,000, it could signal the start of a new long-term upward cycle, with strong momentum for a one-way rally. But if the price turns around between 98,000 and 100,000, then this move is just a corrective rebound, indicating that a thorough structural adjustment has not yet been completed. Once the geopolitical situation settles, whether BTC can maintain its upward momentum remains a question worth monitoring. The recent focus should be on the performance around these two key levels: 98,000 and 100,000.