#比特币2026年行情展望 Bitcoin 2026: Why Are Institutional Expectations So Divergent?

Wall Street's opinions on Bitcoin's trajectory for next year vary widely, which in itself reveals something.

The optimists have presented astonishing figures. Citibank projects a baseline scenario of $143,000, with a bullish scenario pointing to $189,000; Bernstein and Standard Chartered also target around $150,000. Their confidence stems from a core logic: spot ETFs act like a siphon, continuously drawing substantial liquidity from traditional finance into the crypto world. As institutional investors flood in, a slow upward trend led by major players is unfolding.

But pessimistic voices are also emerging. Fidelity’s macro analysis team has poured cold water—2025’s gains may have already overextended the entire cycle, and by 2026, the market is more likely to enter a correction, with prices oscillating between $65,000 and $75,000.

This extreme divergence reflects a deeper fundamental change: what determines Bitcoin’s rise and fall is no longer just the halving cycle. The once predictable patterns have become invalid. The current game has become more complex—global macro liquidity, ETF fund flows, regulatory swings across countries—these factors intertwine to craft a new script.

In such uncertainty, focusing on short-term price movements carries significant risk. Instead, those committed to long-term value building are doing more substantive work—focusing on solving real-world problems, regardless of market ups and downs. While everyone is watching the numbers, the true opportunities may be brewing quietly in the places where efforts are being silently built.