Dollar liquidity cycle and Bitcoin market: Will risk assets rebound in 2026?

Question

【Crypto World】BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently shared an interesting perspective. He believes that Bitcoin's performance in 2025 will be underwhelming, primarily due to the contraction of US dollar liquidity — this logic is actually easy to understand; when the dollar is tight, market risk appetite declines. But this guy looks further ahead; he predicts that US dollar credit expansion will restart in 2026. Once the dollar easing cycle begins, risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could have a chance to rebound. In other words, this is not a "crypto bubble burst" argument, but rather that we might currently be in a bottoming phase. Of course, this is just one opinion, and the actual trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy moves and how the global economy evolves.

Frontrunner · Accepted Answer

Hayes' explanation sounds reasonable, but the key still depends on how the Federal Reserve plays its cards.

If they really loosen in 2026, then there is indeed room for imagination. Anyway, there are no better options right now.

The US dollar remains at the bottom with tense fluctuations. Hmm, this view is quite clear-headed.

Wait, has he been accurate before? Not to criticize him, just want to know how reliable he is.

The bottom is indeed grinding here; a rebound is only a matter of time. As soon as the Federal Reserve loosens, it will take off.

In my opinion, instead of worrying about 2026, it's better to focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

The statement that the easing cycle is too absolute is too much; there are too many uncertainties in the global economy.

ProofOfNothing · Answer

The idea that US dollar liquidity is tightening is something we've heard countless times. Whether it will actually hold true this time is really hard to say.

Wait, is Arthur trying to say that now is the perfect time for us to bottom fish?

Will we be able to turn things around by 2026? Will the Fed really be that obedient? Haha.

Basically, it's still a bet on the Fed turning around. If you bet right, you'll make money; if you bet wrong, you'll continue to stay at the bottom.

GasFeeTherapist · Answer

I really trust Hayes's prediction. When the dollar tightens → risk assets crash, the logic is self-consistent.

Expansion cycle in 2026? Let's wait for the Federal Reserve to give a signal first.

Saying we're at the bottom is nice, but we still have to endure more losses.

Liquidity, to put it simply, is a game of money. Whoever has cash is the boss.

If the easing of the dollar really happens, then we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

Hayes is reliable, but who can really figure out what the Federal Reserve is thinking?

Keep watching the markets, everyone. 2026 is still a long way off.

BlockchainNewbie · Answer

Once the dollar loosens, it'll be our turn. After blocking for over a year, there's finally some hope.

SilentObserver · Answer

Hayes' statement sounds okay, but it all depends on whether the Federal Reserve will cooperate in the end.

Dollar liquidity cycle and Bitcoin market: Will risk assets rebound in 2026?

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