#市场流动性状况 Nomura's warning really hit home for me. The new Federal Reserve Chair will cut interest rates once in June, and then what? Policy disagreements, pressure from Trump, the Fed resisting—this combination turns into a ticking time bomb from July to November.

I've seen too many people chase high prices aggressively when liquidity is abundant, completely ignoring the policy risks behind it. As soon as the market sentiment shifts, the "fleeing US assets" move sweeps in like a wave—US Treasury yields fall, US stocks retreat, the dollar weakens, and ultimately, those retail investors without risk awareness suffer the most.

The key is, this isn't just a US stock market issue. Global economies are stopping or even reversing rate cuts, which means liquidity will truly tighten. Think about it—projects that rely on a loose environment to survive, and those that need continuous new funds flowing in, will struggle to hold once liquidity reverses.

So, the choices now are quite clear: either proactively position in assets with real cash flow and solid fundamentals, or honestly reduce leverage and increase stable asset allocations. Don't wait until the risk erupts in July and then regret it. History always repeats itself, as long as you're sufficiently vigilant.