Arthur Hayes' new article: It is expected that Trump will loosen monetary policy to stimulate the economy in preparation for the midterm elections. Bitcoin will rebound strongly along with the recovery of US dollar liquidity.

On January 15th, Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article “Frowny Cloud”: “Although the gains are not as much as gold, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 is actually completely in line with expectations; it has done what it is supposed to do. If Bitcoin performs poorly in 2025, it is entirely a liquidity story, as it declines along with US dollar liquidity. The reason gold and the Nasdaq can rise against the trend is because they are driven by stronger non-liquidity factors (sovereign de-dollarization + AI quasi-nationalization). But if in 2026 US dollar liquidity expands significantly as expected (Federal Reserve restarts money printing + commercial banks strategically lend + real estate leverages again), then when Bitcoin rebounds, it will be very strong. The current assessment is: Trump will aggressively push credit ‘to make the economy hot.’ A super-hot economy will help the Republican Party in the November 2024 midterm elections. It is expected that US dollar credit will expand through the following ways: · The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expands again (money printing) · Commercial banks flood ‘strategic industries’ with liquidity · Mortgage rates decrease due to money printing”