#加密市场周期与牛熊转换 Seeing this analysis, what flashes through my mind is the pattern that has been repeatedly validated over the past decade and more.

The madness at the end of 2017, the despair in 2018, the illusions in 2021, the crash in 2022—before every cycle turn, the market tends to form a highly consistent consensus. At that time, you would see a sea of the same voices, as if the entire ecosystem had reached an agreement, but in reality, this is precisely the night before a reversal.

This current situation is actually very familiar. Since early November, the bearish sentiment has become increasingly uniform, with various pessimistic tones dominating most of the public discourse. I have seen too many scenes like this—when the market consensus becomes so confident, it often means that the pricing has gone too far. It doesn't mean an immediate reversal will happen, but this extreme unanimity itself contains risks.

Similar patterns appeared in mid-2024 and at the beginning of the year, both eventually evolving into varying degrees of rebound. The signals this time are also worth taking seriously.

But there is a key detail to be cautious about—rebound in a bear market cycle and a true trend reversal are two different things. In a long-term downtrend environment, even if a signal of consensus reversal appears, it should only be regarded as a stage trading opportunity, not a reason to change your allocation. Patience and caution are not signs of negativity but essential lessons to survive longer in this cycle game.

History tells us that the most profitable decisions often come from the most painful moments, but only if you are still alive.