2026-01-15 03:25:31

The non-farm payroll data on January 15th underperformed expectations, immediately igniting market enthusiasm for a rate cut in March. The US dollar index fell by 0.4% in response, and the 2-year US Treasury yield also dropped rapidly by 12 basis points. In this environment, safe-haven assets benefited—gold rose by 0.8%, and Bitcoin held steady at the $96,600 level.

On the stock market side, the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.3%, clearly led by growth stocks, while cyclical stocks were overlooked. It seems the market is trading on the expectation of a rate cut. But here’s a warning: concerns about a recession have not truly dissipated. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at high levels, but the key is to keep an eye on the latest statements from the Federal Reserve and subsequent changes in inflation data. Cryptocurrency assets are bound to fluctuate amid this uncertainty, and risk management is more important than impulsive sentiment.

BTC1,75%

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Rugman_Walking

· 8h ago

Non-farm data pulls down the market, and the rate cut expectations take off. I’m too familiar with this routine. Bitcoin is holding tightly at 96,600, but I still feel there’s a trap ahead. --- The rate cut is good news, but the shadow of recession can’t be completely dispelled. Who would believe it? --- The next move by the Federal Reserve is the key. It’s too early to step off now. --- Nasdaq up 0.3%? That increase is a bit awkward. Cyclical stocks are discarded like trash, indicating the market is still betting. --- Gold up 0.8%, Bitcoin stabilizes, it looks like the safe-haven rally is taking over. But don’t be fooled by this illusion. --- Volatility at high levels is just cutting leeks; risk management is the real skill. --- U.S. Treasury yields down 12bp, seemingly positive, but it’s just the market self-hyping. --- It feels like this wave of market movement is somewhat overextending the rate cut expectations. Whether there will be a backlash later is hard to say.

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MissedAirdropBro

· 8h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts has caused gold and Bitcoin to become volatile, but can this trend last until March? I'm still a bit skeptical.

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SchrödingersNode

· 8h ago

With the expectation of interest rate cuts, Bitcoin remains unmoved. Now that's stability, much better than those who follow the trend.

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ImaginaryWhale

· 8h ago

Non-farm payrolls suddenly explode, directly betting on rate cut expectations. I understand the logic behind this move, but I just feel it's a bit虚虚。 Wait, Bitcoin holding firmly at 96,600, what are they waiting for? With such strong rate cut expectations, why does it still seem to be trembling at high levels? What does this mean? It indicates that everyone actually lacks confidence. Really, compared to guessing what the Federal Reserve will do next, I care more about how to allocate now. Risk management has really saved me many times. Non-farm payrolls underperforming instead becomes a positive? This market is indeed magical. Gold rises 0.8%, now that's the way to go. Crypto volatility is so high, it's still exhausting. The economic recession flag is quite risky to set. How long can the rate cut expectations last? It feels like everyone is gambling.

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PumpDetector

· 8h ago

ngl the fed pivot narrative always hits different... but we've seen this movie before, haven't we? 🎬 dead cat bounce energy written all over this

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HodlVeteran

· 8h ago

As the expectation of interest rate cuts emerges, I, an experienced trader, see the pattern of a bear market rebound again... It jumped like this in 2018 as well, and you know the rest. Bitcoin holds at 96,600, indicating institutions are accumulating, but don't be fooled by this rebound. The lingering recession fears are still a bomb.

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