2026-01-15 03:22:24

Recently, I observed an interesting phenomenon: the US economic data is showing a strange contrast.

On one side, tangible economic activity indicators are soaring—consumer spending, corporate wages, bank loans—these hard indicators have already reached a five-year high, suggesting a thriving economy. But on the other side, consumer confidence and CEO confidence are rubbing against the floor, completely in two parallel worlds.

The latest report from US banks provides an answer: the widening income inequality gap is the culprit. The top 10% of high-income households support nearly half of the consumption, which naturally makes the hard data look good. But most ordinary households are not optimistic about the economic outlook at all, and this is the root of the soft data weakness.

Interestingly, historical patterns tell us that this soft data pessimism usually gradually transmits to hard data over about 60 days. In other words, the currently strong economic activity may gradually be dragged down by expectations.

The market generally expects US GDP growth to be around 1% in 2026, but Bank of America is more optimistic, expecting it to reach 2.4%. However, analysts also give a tip—particularly watch the period from May to June, as it could be a key window for trend reversal.

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FundingMartyr

· 10h ago

Those who eat chicken soup are all leeks; the truth is that wealth disparity is causing chaos. The top 10% of the money is getting more and more, while others are gradually being drained. It's no wonder the hard data looks good. I don't believe Bank of America's 2.4% forecast... Will June really see a reversal, or is it just another performance of cutting leeks again? The income gap is widening, and no matter how strong the economy is, it can't save ordinary people. So, what about the supposed recovery? Let's wait and see what happens in the next 60 days.

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just_vibin_onchain

· 10h ago

Really, the top 10% eat meat, while the remaining 90% drink soup. No matter how good the hard data looks, it's all pointless. --- The 60-day transmission theory is quite interesting. Let's wait and see if May can turn things around. --- What's with the optimism from Bank of America? Let's talk about it later. --- Why does it always feel like economic data has nothing to do with my wallet? --- With such a large income gap, it will eventually explode. Now everyone is pretending not to see it. --- CEO confidence is at a floor, friction haha. This description is perfect. --- From May to June, got it. When the time comes, if it crashes, it will crash. --- Hard data is good, soft data is terrible. This script is really cliché.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 10h ago

This is again a typical case of data deception. The top 10% are frantically spending to maintain appearances, while 99% of the bottom are already tightening their belts. Wait, isn't this logic reversed? CEOs and ordinary people are both pessimistic? That suggests there's indeed something suspicious going on. If the data can be transmitted to hard figures within the past two months, then May and June are bound to explode. Everyone will have to wake up then. Bank of America’s forecast of 2.4% growth is probably overly optimistic. It would take some very optimistic assumptions to support that. Income inequality has become so severe that it distorts the entire macro data. That’s the real warning sign we should be alert to. Are you ready for shorting? When the reversal window opens, it will be a big wave. This wave of US data looks like it’s just blowing bubbles; it will burst sooner or later.

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BoredApeResistance

· 10h ago

Hard data appears inflated, soft data reveals the truth. We're all tired of this routine. The reversal window is here; it would be strange if nothing happens in May and June. The top 10% of consumers support the overall data? Wake up, everyone. Ordinary people's confidence has hit rock bottom; even high hard indicators are just illusions. A 60-day transmission cycle, the countdown has begun. Let's wait and see. Pretending not to see the wealth gap—data can deceive, but the market cannot. What’s the point of Goldman Sachs being optimistic? The people at the bottom can’t even get enough to eat.

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