Before the CPI release, the market's true trading is not the data itself, but the expectation gap

Before each CPI release, the market appears calm on the surface, but in fact, there are undercurrents. What is truly being traded is not the absolute CPI figure, but whether it "exceeds expectations." Currently, market consensus on inflation has gradually formed: inflation has eased, but stickiness remains, especially in core CPI and services. Because expectations are highly aligned, even a 0.1% deviation in the data will be amplified and interpreted.

From historical experience, one week before the CPI release, funds often adjust their positions in advance, leading to reduced volume and volatile fluctuations in risk assets. This is not about choosing a direction but "waiting for the answer." Once the data is released, volatility tends to concentrate in a short period, then quickly return to rationality. In other words, CPI is the "trigger point," but not the "source of the trend."

At this stage, if CPI is slightly below expectations, the market will reinforce "interest rate cut trades," with risk assets temporarily rallying; but if it is significantly below expectations, it may instead trigger concerns about an economic recession, leading to a rise followed by downward pressure. Conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations, short-term valuation devaluation is almost unavoidable, but if it is not extremely high, it often becomes a clearing point for panic selling.

Therefore, the core of trading CPI is not about betting on the direction, but understanding:
📌 How much has the market already priced in?
📌 Is the data enough to change the current macro narrative?
📌 Is it "confirming the trend," or "emotional correction"?

Truly mature traders often lower their expectations before CPI and look for structural opportunities after CPI. #CPI数据将公布