Market crossroads within 24 hours: US Non-Farm Payroll data and trade policy face dual tests

The crypto market is standing at a highly sensitive time window. Two macro data points could completely change traders’ risk sentiment within hours. Sentiment has been stretched to the limit — a single data report can trigger a reverse wave.

The First Key: Non-Farm Payroll Data (Released at 21:30 ET Beijing Time)

This data is the market’s “silent killer.” Expectations are moderate, but it’s the most dangerous.

Weak Data Scenario: Growth concerns resurface, and the market begins to reprice the probability of rate cuts. Stocks and risk assets come under pressure, and related cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may also be pressured.

Strong Data Scenario: The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate stance, which is not friendly to risk assets. The US dollar remains strong, and cryptocurrencies need to digest this reality.

This data point can determine the entire market direction within minutes.

The Second Key: Trade Policy and Tariff Trends

This is a headline risk that models cannot precisely price. The market is waiting for policy signals.

Tariffs Maintained: Inflationary pressures persist, the US dollar continues to strengthen, and defensive operations heat up.

Tariffs Eased: Risk assets may rebound, with rapid re-pricing across markets, especially interest rate assets.

Current Market Pattern

Major cryptocurrencies are showing tight consolidation. Historically, such compression often leads to significant breakouts — upward or downward depends on the results of the above two data points.

Real-time Cryptocurrency Data:

• POL (Polygon Ecosystem Token) currently at $0.15, down -7.91% in 24 hours
• ZEC (ZCash) currently at $410.89, up +6.38% in 24 hours
• BIFI dropped over 10%, reflecting weak risk sentiment

Questions Traders Need to Consider

The key decision at this moment is: Are you on the defensive (protecting principal), or preparing for the upcoming opportunities?

Position allocation is more important than “confidence level.” The market is in a state of high uncertainty, and everything could reverse within 24 hours.