Corn Futures Navigate Modest Price Swings as Export Momentum Cools

Corn futures wrapped up a lackluster Thursday session with minimal losses in near-term contracts offset by slight gains in distant months. The national average Cash Corn price registered a pullback of ¼ cent, settling at $4.08 1/2, reflecting subdued trading activity through the week.

Export Sales Disappoint Against Forecasts

Weekly Export Sales figures unveiled this morning painted a softer picture for global demand. Only 377,598 MT of corn moved through sales channels in the week concluding January 1, significantly underperforming analyst expectations of 0.7-1.5 MMT for the 2025/26 marketing year. This represented both a marketing year low and a 15.1% decline compared to the identical week in the prior year—a notable contraction signaling potential demand headwinds.

South Korea emerged as the dominant buyer, commanding 139,000 MT of the week’s shipments, trailed by Japan’s 108,100 MT purchase. Forward-year sales for 2026/27 came in at 11,860 MT, positioning within the anticipated 0-100,000 MT range but reflecting limited additional commitment beyond immediate needs.

Exports Hit Peak Despite Weekly Softness

Census Bureau data delivered a contrasting narrative through October export records, which arrived with delayed reporting. Corn shipments reached a peak of 6.564 MMT (248.5 mbu) during the month—a 5.93% retreat from September volumes but a robust 63.38% surge relative to October 2024. This strength underscores the underlying export potential despite the recent weekly slowdown.

Co-product flows maintained their vigor: distillers exports nearly matched last October’s pinnacle at 1.067 MMT, while ethanol shipments rebounded to a monthly record pace of 185 million gallons. These figures suggest resilience in value-added corn product streams even as raw corn sales face near-term constraints.

Market Awaits WASDE Reassessment

The USDA’s forthcoming WASDE report Monday will offer critical updated guidance. Bloomberg-surveyed analysts project ending stocks to reach 1.985 bbu, implying a 44 mbu drawdown if the forecast materializes—a development that could provide technical support for prices heading into spring contracts.

Contract Settlement Summary:

• Mar 26 Corn: $4.46, down ¾ cent
• Nearby Cash: $4.08 1/2, down ¼ cent
• May 26 Corn: $4.54, unchanged
• Jul 26 Corn: $4.60 1/2, up ¾ cent

The divergence between front-month weakness and out-month strength reflects trader positioning ahead of the WASDE data release and uncertainty surrounding export momentum through the remainder of the season.